US midterm elections

[voice]

Possibly the last time they have a free and fair election as a true democracy. Though the party in power usually gets their arse handed to them at the midterms, there is a chance the Dems could hold the house and increase their majority in the senate, partly cos of the extremists on the supreme court rolling back rights and freedoms, and partly cos the GOP has some very extreme candidates who are simply unelectable in many places.

The real danger are the state races though, 200 election deniers are on the ballot, many in positions that will give them control over the 2024 vote and who have already said they would never ratify a vote that says a Democrat won.

Then there is a specter of violence from the right, both on polling day and if they loose races. Talk of launching a civil war is getting louder on the right, Congress Woman Marjory Tayler Green (one so thick she makes Liz Truss look like a genius) said last weekend at a red neck Nuremburg rally that Republicans are getting rounded up and murdered, so it was time to take the fight to them and eradicate the democrats by any means possible (obviously no one is being rounded up or murdered, but the MAGA crowd aren't the brightest so lapped this up)

Dangerous times.

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63133259

[mids]

I see the far left are working themselves up to have an insurrection if things don't go their way. Some things never change.

[flatandy]

Despite the chatter, it's incredibly unlikely that the Dems win the House, and fairly unlikely they'll win more seats in the Senate.

My guess is that the House with finish about 230-205 to the Republicans. Which is good for them, but not great. They should theoretically do better than that in any mid-term, but particularly a mid-term with a slightly shonky economy and a President with apparently very low approval ratings.

I expect the Senate to either finish 51-49 Rep or stay at 50-50. The Republicans will lose Pennsylvania, will not lose (despite excitement from some Dems) in Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina or Florida. Republicans won't win in Arizona or New Hampshire, where they were expected to do well. So the Republicans need to win both of Nevada and Georgia - both of which are entirely possible despite their candidate in Georgia being an spectacular disaster.

[voice]

Georgia will probably go to a run off and then the rep voters may well hold their nose and vote for Walker despite the abortion, the violent assaulting of his wife and kids, as by December the 6th its probably going to the deciding seat.

[ootlg]

"...she makes Liz Truss look like a genius."

What is she, a potato?

[voice]

She strives to be a potato

[flatandy]

If Rudolph Hess and a potato had a daughter with Downs syndrome, you'd be getting close.

[mids]

How many votes have the Dems got so far?

[Repat Van]

Oct 5, 2022 15:02:54 GMT voice said:

Georgia will probably go to a run off and then the rep voters may well hold their nose and vote for Walker despite the abortion, the violent assaulting of his wife and kids, as by December the 6th its probably going to the deciding seat.

Shows how ridiculous US politics are now - or at least how stupid Republicans are that they still want to support Walker.

[flatandy]

The Walker thing has got even more hilarious.

Two days ago Walker said he had no idea who the woman could be and her anonymity is evidence that it was a made up story.

Yesterday we discover she's mother of one of the children he had denied having outside of marriage (despite having spent decades campaigning against deadbeat black dads).

Newt Gingrich explained this away as "well, he had lots of concussions as a footballer" without thinking through that perhaps this isn't a great endorsement for elected office.

[Repat Van]

Oct 6, 2022 12:14:54 GMT flatandy said:

The Walker thing has got even more hilarious.

Two days ago Walker said he had no idea who the woman could be and her anonymity is evidence that it was a made up story.

Yesterday we discover she's mother of one of the children he had denied having outside of marriage (despite having spent decades campaigning against deadbeat black dads).

Newt Gingrich explained this away as "well, he had lots of concussions as a footballer" without thinking through that perhaps this isn't a great endorsement for elected office.

I knew the hilarity about the woman turning out to be one of his BMs.

However Newt Gingrich’s defence is new information and that is hilarious!!

[voice]

They are tying themselves in knots trying to justify his violence against his family, his multiple kids by other women and the abortion, saying stuff like, well he learned from his past, despite doing all this stuff while at the same time slagging off dead beat dads, being incredibly anti-abortion and so on.

[voice]

Poor night so far for the GOP, they might, just might take the house, but only by one or two seats, the dems are actually picking up house seats, no incumbent party has done that for decades, even the districts heavily gerrymandered in republican favour are not turning red. The Senate may stay as it was, as much chance at this point of the dems keeping it and increasing their majority, which would be unprecedented. Given Trump made this all about him, on the republican side, touting a re-run in 2024, you gotts think at this point DeSantis must be ecstatic given how most of Trumps candidates are being rejected.

Obviously the terrorist wing of the republican party are already taking in dark terms or an armed uprising in places such as Arizona.

[voice]

All of the pro-abortion amendments are also winning, as are expanding and protecting the vote proposals, and all the anti-abortion ones are loosing.

[ootlg]

Not sure the GOP are 100% behind Trump. De Santis looks like a possible runner for Pres.

[Psalms]

Republicans - the sane choice

[wetkingcanute]

Trump could not risk losing for a second time.
And as it looks like the Red Wave has not materialised - he might just slink away.

[flatandy]

The lack of a true Red Wave is great. But I wouldn't be quite so enthusiastic as Voice yet. There are still 5 Senate races undecided and they could all go Republican. Alaska definitely, Wisconsin almost certainly. They say that Nevada is marginally Democrat but I don't see that in the numbers. Arizona looks like a genuine toss-up. And Georgia is definitely going to a run-off where anything could happen.

So we could still have some worse outcomes.

Still, abortion rights winning in Michigan is fantastic. As if Michigan now having Democratic governor, state senate and state house (particularly good to see Gretchen Whitmer winning given how she was treating by rebel insurrectionists). Good to see Tony Evers retaining the governorship of Wisconsin. There's a chance that the abortion amendment in Kentucky would pass, which would be bad, but that seems to be very tight at the moment.

Paul LePage losing in Maine is glorious. Mark Finchem - who was actually part of the insurrection in DC - potentially losing the Sec of State race in Arizona would be lovely but there's also lots of votes to count there.

So, while I'm not jumping up and down about this, even if the Democrats lose all 5 remaining Senate seats it's going to be a far, far less bad mid-term than they normally are for the incumbent; and farm far less bad than I'd expected and feared.

[voice]

Yeah, pretty much that, but I think the Dems will shade Arizona, the Rep has a big hill to climb to catch up, Though Lake is looking like she can win the governorship which is a bit disastrous for democracy surviving there. I think it will be like 2020, down to the Georgia run off on Dec 6th.

One thing is for certain, Florida is no longer a swing state, the gerrymander is so strong now its a firm red state.

The biggest looser last night was Trump, so many places it was a referendum on crazy and where it matters crazy mostly lost. The biggest winner was DeSantis, he clearly has the popularity and the momentum he needs to elbow Trump aside. Not that he would be any better, he might not be as corrupt or incompetent as Trump, but he's certainly as cruel.

[voice]

One of the more odious far right election denying grossly stupid members, Bogart, lost her seat.

Nice