Post by Repat Van on Mar 21, 2024 12:39:45 GMT
Global fertility rates set to crash, triggering ‘staggering’ social change
Modelling projects that 97 per cent of the world’s countries will have a shrinking population by 2100
“Global fertility rates are set to fall dramatically over the next 80 years leading to “staggering social change,” according to a study published in The Lancet.
By 2100, 97 per cent of the world’s countries will have a shrinking population, modelling has projected.
To maintain its population size, a country requires a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. By 2050, researchers suggest that number will have dropped to 1.83, and to a further 1.59 by 2100.
In 13 countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia, rates are predicted to fall below one child per female.
In Britain, that number recently dropped to 1.49 – the lowest rate ever recorded – whilst demographers warn that high living costs, nursery fees, house prices and stagnating pay for young people mean rates will likely continue to fall.”
Global economic development is the key driving force behind the decline, as improved education, better access to contraception, and a reduction in infant mortality – meaning more children will survive into adulthood – all contribute.
“In many ways, tumbling fertility rates are a success story, reflecting not only better, easily available contraception but also many women choosing to delay or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment,” said senior author Dr Vollset from the University of Washington.
The global fertility rate has already halved over the past 70 years, from around five children per female in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
The sharp drop in fertility will have “profound effects on populations, economics, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment,” as countries grapple with an elderly population and heavily reduced workforce, according to the study.
Only 26 countries – including Angola, Uganda, Chad, and Somalia – are set experience population growth in 2100.
Whilst fertility rates are dropping across the board, the rate of decline in low and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to be much slower than the rest of the world. “
Two things:
1) Is this something that’s actually a concern? It does mean we have to change the way we fund things and think more strategically about how we provide elder care with fewer children around to provide that to their parents
2) It’s overall good news as far as drivers are concerned: better education and better access to healthcare means fewer babies.
3) Interesting that for all the wild panic about growing Muslims numbers, Muslim countries will not escape the plummeting birth rates.
www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/women-and-girls/global-fertility-crash-triggering-staggering-social-change/
uk.news.yahoo.com/three-four-countries-may-shrinking-233000088.html
www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/lancet-dramatic-declines-global-fertility-rates-set-transform#:~:text=By%202100%2C%2097%25%20of%20countries,to%20sustain%20their%20population%20size.&text=By%202050%2C%20over%20three%2Dquarters,198%20of%20204)%20by%202100.
Modelling projects that 97 per cent of the world’s countries will have a shrinking population by 2100
“Global fertility rates are set to fall dramatically over the next 80 years leading to “staggering social change,” according to a study published in The Lancet.
By 2100, 97 per cent of the world’s countries will have a shrinking population, modelling has projected.
To maintain its population size, a country requires a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. By 2050, researchers suggest that number will have dropped to 1.83, and to a further 1.59 by 2100.
In 13 countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia, rates are predicted to fall below one child per female.
In Britain, that number recently dropped to 1.49 – the lowest rate ever recorded – whilst demographers warn that high living costs, nursery fees, house prices and stagnating pay for young people mean rates will likely continue to fall.”
Global economic development is the key driving force behind the decline, as improved education, better access to contraception, and a reduction in infant mortality – meaning more children will survive into adulthood – all contribute.
“In many ways, tumbling fertility rates are a success story, reflecting not only better, easily available contraception but also many women choosing to delay or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment,” said senior author Dr Vollset from the University of Washington.
The global fertility rate has already halved over the past 70 years, from around five children per female in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
The sharp drop in fertility will have “profound effects on populations, economics, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment,” as countries grapple with an elderly population and heavily reduced workforce, according to the study.
Only 26 countries – including Angola, Uganda, Chad, and Somalia – are set experience population growth in 2100.
Whilst fertility rates are dropping across the board, the rate of decline in low and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to be much slower than the rest of the world. “
Two things:
1) Is this something that’s actually a concern? It does mean we have to change the way we fund things and think more strategically about how we provide elder care with fewer children around to provide that to their parents
2) It’s overall good news as far as drivers are concerned: better education and better access to healthcare means fewer babies.
3) Interesting that for all the wild panic about growing Muslims numbers, Muslim countries will not escape the plummeting birth rates.
www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/women-and-girls/global-fertility-crash-triggering-staggering-social-change/
uk.news.yahoo.com/three-four-countries-may-shrinking-233000088.html
www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/lancet-dramatic-declines-global-fertility-rates-set-transform#:~:text=By%202100%2C%2097%25%20of%20countries,to%20sustain%20their%20population%20size.&text=By%202050%2C%20over%20three%2Dquarters,198%20of%20204)%20by%202100.
