General Election 2024

[mids]

Although that final point is true.

[flatandy]

Jun 3, 2024 14:04:37 GMT unclejunior said:

Jun 3, 2024 13:48:05 GMT flatandy said:

Yaxley-Lennon is far right. What's your complaint? I think once your language includes "globalist media" and "forced vaccinations" you are almost certainly on the eccentric fringes, and then when you add anti-foreigner sentiment that puts you fully in the far right.

...its typical lazy journalism to lump everyone who showed up at the weekend to be identical in their political views on all subjects....its rather like suggesting that people who march and campaign for peace in Palestine are all pro-Hamas terrorist supporters & want to wipe out Israel .

Hilarious.

[unclejunior]

...so glad that you agree with me 👍

[flatandy]

Nobody said they were identical in their views. Just that they were far right. I have no idea what the march was about as you've not provided a link, so perhaps they weren't all far right. But without any additional evidence it's not a bad assumption that people who go to a far right organised march are far right. People who go on a pro-Palestinian march are likely to generally be pro-Palestinian. There might be differences of opinion within the far right, just like there are in the pro-Palestinians. But they're both reasonable general descriptions, I think.

[mids]

I see Big Nige is now the leader of Reform UK.

[perrykneeham]

Hmmmm .... the phrase "lost his deposit" comes to mind. The thing is with Sir Nige is that he's too polarising. People won't vote for him because they don't like his hail-fellow-well-met, city chap in the pub on Sunday afternoon persona.

He talks a lot of sense, but he gets on my tits.

[moggyonspeed]

Jun 3, 2024 15:10:29 GMT mids said:

I see Big Nige is now the leader of Reform UK.

All he'll do is to split votes for the Right still further. Friday's Poll of Polls puts Labour still on 45% with the Tories and Reform on 35% combined. Of course, that 35% is predicated on Tory voters NOT staying at home come the day, as many of them might because they know the result is a foregone conclusion and/or they want to register a protest vote against what the Tories have done (or not done) and where the country is headed.

STOP PRESS: Latest opinion poll taking new boundaries into account has Labour on a 140-seat majority ...

'Labour On Track For 140-Seat Majority At Next General Election, Bombshell Poll Shows' : "The Times They Are a-Changin' ..."

[moggyonspeed]

Well didn't that link work well ... NOT!?

Perhaps, after all, today IS "International Moggy's Got His Head Up His Arse" day.

[mids]

I see Big Nige is to stand in Clacton.

[perrykneeham]

Yeah,he might do okay there. The polls are grim, but they are just polls.

[voice]

How many more times will he have to loose his deposit before it twigs, only a few Gammons and racists will ever vote for him?

[perrykneeham]

Starmer?

[perrykneeham]

I expect that response rates will probably be a key consideration in poll errors this time round.

[flatandy]

It was interesting seeing a demographic breakdown of recent polling which showed that ConForm were under 50% in every age group except the over 70s. The bald men can fight over the dying comb.

[voice]

Going back to Baloo being wrong about illigals not getting benefits, as usual when proof of this was presented he goes on to talk about an entirely different thing, refugees, knowing (I mean hopefully he knows, given he's quite low information he might not) that illegals working on farms, construction, haulage food processing and all the other low skilled low wage jobs that form a substantial part of the economy are different entirely. And the point I made about no government tackling the problem cos it would mean going after the companies (many who donate large sums to the Tories) means there will always be demand for illegals to come to the UK to work.

What's needed is either a clamp down on these employers, though that would damage the economy putting prices up, or make a path for the easy entry to work legally, though again prices would go up as they'd then have the legal protections currently denied them.

As a side issue, refugees, though a seperate issue, should also be allowed to work and contribute rather than being forced to exist on benefitd.

[perrykneeham]

Yeah, but it's just polling. They have often been wrong, nit least because of a certain tension between who they're asking, who's interested in answering, and who's paying.

[perrykneeham]

Jun 3, 2024 16:59:49 GMT voice said:

Going back to Baloo being wrong about illigals not getting benefits, as usual when proof of this was presented he goes on to talk about an entirely different thing, refugees, knowing (I mean hopefully he knows, given he's quite low information he might not) that illegals working on farms, construction, haulage food processing and all the other low skilled low wage jobs that form a substantial part of the economy are different entirely. And the point I made about no government tackling the problem cos it would mean going after the companies (many who donate large sums to the Tories) means there will always be demand for illegals to come to the UK to work.

What's needed is either a clamp down on these employers, though that would damage the economy putting prices up, or make a path for the easy entry to work legally, though again prices would go up as they'd then have the legal protections currently denied them.

As a side issue, refugees, though a seperate issue, should also be allowed to work and contribute rather than being forced to exist on benefitd.

Screeeeeech!

You've been schooled.

[voice]

So, nothing, as I thought.

[perrykneeham]

If you'd bothered to read the link provided, you would see that the overwhelming majority of illegals claim to be refugees. Do try and keep up.

[flatandy]

Jun 3, 2024 16:56:37 GMT perrykneeham said:

I expect that response rates will probably be a key consideration in poll errors this time round.

I think in addition to everything else about how bad the current government is and how comically inept the PM is at campaigning, there'll be other factors at work.

Gammons who'd normally vote Tory will now see that the Tories are sunk, so will feel free to fire off their random angry vote for Refuk which might harm the Tories more.

Also, often there seems to be a positive feedback loop where bad polling gets people to think that there's no reason to vote for the losing party. If you're in a once-safe Tory seat, why bother to vote Tory? You're associating yourself with sad losers which is just a depressing thought. If the Tories are doing better than expected, your seat is still safe so you didn't need to bother to go out. But if your seat (say, the 150th safest Tory seat) has become marginal, the Tories are getting hammered nationally so it doesn't matter if they lose this one.

There are things that might depress Tory vote even more.

But equally, there are lots of elements that might depress Labour vote, particularly their attempt to become StarmFront with their massively racist attacks on everyone depressing turnout among traditional Labour groups. I wonder if we'll see quite strong Green and Lib Dem showings in northern inner cities that normally have been very Labour, even while the so-called Red Wall of smaller working class northern towns revert.