Hostages to fortune - a thread of bold predictions

[perrykneeham]

"misogynists and racists"

Did you not see the last cabinet? Headed by a woman and stuffed with our Commonwealth brothers and sisters.

[ootlg]

Tokens. Every single one of 'em.

[mids]

Kemz was the Tory party membership favourite for leader. A chick and a CC. At the same time!

[moggyonspeed]

Puh-leaze let it be Johnson.

Two years is plenty of time for the C-19 inquiry to report that he did indeed lie to Parliament, the Queen, the electorate et al, at which point he will be forced out (again). Either way, Johnson is a shoo-in for a non-Tory government in '24.

[perrykneeham]

Yeah, they were saying that in '16.

[moggyonspeed]

... since when he has lied on one or two occasions to some very important people.

Let him stand.

[flatandy]

The is a bold prediction in the sense that Baloo's was yesterday morning that Truss wouldn't survive:

If Johnson gets 100 MPs to support him, he'll win any ballot against any other contenders with the membership, because the Tory membership are the sort of dimwitted fools who actually think the general public remain fond of Johnson.

So the parliamentary party are going to be working very, very hard to keep him off the ballot, because a majority of them can't stand the man - which is why he was forced out in the first place. They know that he's useless and corrupt, they know that he'd completely checked out already long ago and left the country rudderless through the leadership election. Meanwhile, of course, the Tufton-Bufton brigade in the shires are trying to strong arm their MPs into supporting the twunt.

The only boldish prediction here is that there might actually be a confidence vote should he find himself back in power.

[perrykneeham]

Oct 21, 2022 10:51:31 GMT moggyonspeed said:

... since when he has lied on one or two occasions to some very important people.

Let him stand.

Again, they were saying that too.

[moggyonspeed]

Perhaps, but it was neither the Queen nor Parliament back then. Lying to the former is bad enough, but the latter, if it is proven, lands Johnson in a world of hurt that, try though he may, he won't be able to shake off in his usual cavalier manner. If the PP + members vote Johnson in now, then proof that he lied to the House will further damage the Party to such an extent that not only will they lose the next election, but they may not even make it to largest opposition party status.

Bring it on.

[perrykneeham]

Pop it away, etc.

[ootlg]

Sunak V Johnson then. What a choice.

[flatandy]

It's an interesting choice. If you want a non-catastrophic next two years for Britain, and just a dangerously corrupt, dangerously ideological, but at least vaguely in touch with reality PM, you'd take Sunak. But if you don't care about the next two years but are looking more to a long term future and the complete final death spiral of the Conservative Party, you'd be hoping for Johnson. At the moment I don't see how Johnson fails to win with the membership if he actually has 100 supporters, but it's hard to see how he creates a functioning government given that almost every tory MP has already quit his cabinet in disgust at some point.

[ootlg]

Intrigue. Sunak and Johnson are meeting this evening. I expect Johnson'll offer Sunak No 11 and a Lordship if he cedes and let's him return as PM. Indians covet lordships - next step President of India. Then assassination.