Government action is avoiding a worse recession

[omnipleasant]

Some sensible analysis amid the nonsense and noise.

The cost of the bank bailouts to the taxpayer will be small, and we might even make a profit from it.

Borrowing is going up obviously, but even so goverment debt will still cost less in interest than we were paying in 1997.

The VAT cut has had and will continue to have a much bigger impact than the critics suggest.

And other stuff, amid the obvious negative news. Of course, you won't read any of that in the press, you'll just hear DOOOM...

www.ifs.org.uk/publications/4419

[VikingHumpingWitch]

Fcuk the press, I've just been asked to rewrite a proposal to our MDs on cost saving. Suffice to say another round of redundancies looms.

[omnipleasant]

Recommendation 1: Learn to bloody write and stop paying contractors a fortune for something you should be able to do yourself?

[VikingHumpingWitch]

Ha, I'm not creating the proposals, just putting them into recognisable and grammatically correct English. Obviously if they asked me I'd go with this plan anyway as it appears to suggest reducing sales staff but not back office. Then again, I have no doubt back office staff are being reviewed elsewhere and even my company would probably not send a recommendation to off me for rewriting by me.

[omnipleasant]

What are unemployment benefits in Sweden like?

[omnipleasant]

Incidentally, the third last paragraph of that IFS summary is scary.

They recommend
1) More spending increases / tax cuts / increased borrowing for another fiscal stimulus.
2) More support for the banks to start lending.
3) Cutting interest rates.
AND
4) Printing money.

Kitchen sink or wot.

[VikingHumpingWitch]

Jan 28, 2009 16:33:52 GMT @omnipleasant said:

What are unemployment benefits in Sweden like?

Erm. I think around 350 kronor a day, but assume that's just Monday to Friday. More if you pay into an insurance fund thingy which I think you're meant to do. But you have to have no money at all to get it, I think.

Dunno really.

[flatandy]

Well, I recommend:

1) Lots and lots more spending on cool infrastructure projects and Mitterand-style ego-projects. We really need some pyramids.

2) As majority shareholder in lots of banks start get them to lend at traditional levels relative to Bank base rates, or sack the board.

3) Cut interest rates more

4) Don't print money yet. Only if we start deflating properly.

[omnipleasant]

I'm softening on the idea of building pyramids, but I'm still mixed.

Agree with the rest though. Plus more tax cuts for the poor, and a continental style voucher / subsidy type thing for people who want to buy cars and, er, steel.

[VikingHumpingWitch]

I like the idea of lots of infrastructure projects. Construction needs a boost.

Also, we could sell Wales to the highest bidder.

[jonren]

Why another flaming thread? Every time you have something refuted, Omni, you say the same in another thread, thinly disguised.

Feel free. include me out, as the great man said.

[flatandy]

If we built huge pyramids out of steel we wouldn't need to give vouchers to the public to buy steel with.

[omnipleasant]

Pretty significant IFS report Jonren, not my opinion. Thought it deserved a thread.

[flatandy]

Ditto building pyramids out of unsellable 4wd cars.

[omnipleasant]

Another really interesting thing is that the fiscal stimulus has actually had piss all impact on the public finances - it accounts for 1/15th of the increase in debt.

Full report, which I'm sure you'll all print and read in bed tonight is here:

www.ifs.org.uk/publications/4417

And some really good analysis from the dreamy Stephanie Flanders is here:

www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/

[jonren]

"Pretty significant IFS report Jonren, not my opinion. Thought it deserved a thread."


Fairy muff, Omni. I like this bit.


"The Government - or its successor - will need fresh tax increases or spending cuts worth an extra £20 billion a year by the end of the next Parliament, if it is to expect to repair the public finances as planned in November's Pre-Budget Report, according to the 2009 IFS Green Budget. Even if it acts, public sector debt may well not return to pre-crisis levels for more than 20 years"


Clunk has motgaged the future of the under fifties. If he forgoes his salary for the next twenty years, it will help. It proves my favourite quote. The government is promising "an equal sharing of misery"

I think I will ask Vox if she has a spare room.

[policecar]

I saw Stephanie the other day outside my work- she looked swell


I think MONG should announce a British mission to the moon

[dwad]

Can I just say that the interest thing is working for me. My mortgage is almost free now so I am releasing capital to build a kitchen extension. Doing my bit to save the country.

[policecar]

If you're looking for light relief, I recommend you take a look at the "four main goals for its management of the public finances" which Labour set itself in 1997, reprinted on page 10 of the IFS report. They're a hoot.


;D

[VikingHumpingWitch]

I have just had The most depressing conversation with a Director. Who thinks she'll end up losing her job.

Seriously, I'm going to take up knitting kiddie clothes.