Toasty!

[rick49]

Jan 16, 2015 23:05:47 GMT flatandy said:

18 year pause? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Yes. Of course.

I bet we're going to have "cooling" next year, too.

Warmists have adjusted, re-adjusted, and re-re-re-re-re-adjusted the data so many times until they get the results they want, I'm the one who should be laughing.

[lala]

Jan 17, 2015 5:55:30 GMT rick49 said:

Warmists have adjusted, re-adjusted, and re-re-re-re-re-adjusted the data so many times until they get the results they want, I'm the one who should be laughing.

*cough again*

Jan 16, 2015 19:50:35 GMT lala said:

Or will it be, "The thermometers are wrong, Roy Spencer's satellites are the ONLY valid source of information!"

[Eric]

Interesting graphic:

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014-hottest-year-on-record/

[rick49]

"Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... but we're only 38% sure we were right"

"As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this (margin of error), he did not respond."

tinyurl.com/mwbz3c4

Now Schmidt mentions the margin of error,,,after The Narrative of 2014 being the hottest ever is already firmly set in stone. He got the headlines he wanted. How convenient.

[voice]

Its funny how desperate you are to show the science is other than it is Rick. Still that's what happens when you are guided more by idiology than by empericism.

There really is no substitute for rationality mate.

[rick49]

[rick49]

Jan 18, 2015 17:49:51 GMT voice said:

Its funny how desperate you are to show the science is other than it is Rick. Still that's what happens when you are guided more by idiology than by empericism.

There really is no substitute for rationality mate.

You think 38% certainty = 100% certainty,,,and you talk about rationality? Uh, huh.

[rick49]

"On the Biases Caused by Omissions in the 2014 NOAA State of the Climate Report"

NOOA's headline grabber:

"The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F)."

The reality:

"BIAS OF OMISSION 1"

"It’s not until readers scroll down to the rankings table in the SOTC report that NOAA introduces uncertainties. See my Figure 1. So, according to NOAA, the “annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F)”, but then NOAA clarifies their global surface temperature anomalies as “+0.69 ± 0.09” deg C. Alas, we discover that the new record high by 0.04 deg C is within the +/-0.09 deg C uncertainty of the dataset."

"Using a Monte Carlo approach (Arguez et al, 2013), NCDC considered the known uncertainty of the global land and ocean annual temperature in the 2014 annual ranking. Taking into account the uncertainty and assuming all years (1880-2014) in the time series are independent, the chance of 2014 being"

"Warmest year on record: 48.0%"

tinyurl.com/n6dsh69

So once you get past the panic inducing headlines, both NASA and NOAA say the chances of 2014 being the hottest year evah are less than 50%.

[flatandy]

You do understand how scientific error works, don't you, Rick?

[lala]

Funny how certainty was not an issue for 1998 over the last 17 years.

[clarity]

The Canadian paper media have published no end of graphs etc to substantiate that it was the hottest year since 1880. However, all the graphs show that there were 2 anomalies, namely Canada and parts of the USA. Canada had the coldest winter since national records began. The winter was brutal with record snowfalls, icestorms and some provinces had snow for 6 straight months. Not here thank goodness. Further the Great Lakes ice cover was the largest since records began and the lakes weren't ice free until June. Our summer was cooler too with only a few days up to 39C and we had lots of rain which kept the farmers happy as usually we have localized droughts.

The states east of the Rockies also had their coldest winter, however Alaska and California both had record warm along with Nevada and Arizona. Now I know this is only local weather and overall temperatures were higher world wide, but I would like to know why this happened. Last winter everybody was talking about Arctic air flowing down, but that happens most years and most years it's not that darn cold. On the graphs they show the Arctic being 1C warmer so we should have been warmer here. Happily this winter we are just experiencing normal cold weather but very little snow so far.

[flatandy]

However, all the graphs show that there were 2 anomalies, namely Canada and parts of the USA.

Well, here's the thing. They're not really "anomalies". It would be completely utterly bizarre if every place on the planet was warmer than the long-term average.

[rick49]

Jan 18, 2015 22:43:09 GMT flatandy said:

You do understand how scientific error works, don't you, Rick?

Wikipedia - "The use of ⟨±⟩ for an approximation is most commonly encountered in presenting the numerical value of a quantity together with its tolerance or its statistical margin of error.[1] For example, "5.7±0.2" denotes a quantity that is specified or estimated to be within 0.2 units of 5.7; it may be anywhere in the range from 5.7 − 0.2 (i.e., 5.5) to 5.7 + 0.2 (5.9)."

Thats the way I've always understood it. That, along with NOAA's probability ranking:

"Warmest year on record: 48.0%"

And along with this:



And along with satellite measurements showing no new record, tells me that 2014 was not the warmest year ever.

[flatandy]

2014 is measured as the warmest year ever. It's measured as warmer than 1998 or 1702 or whichever year you choose to compare against. It's our best estimate of which year is the warmest ever.

It would be ludicrous to assume it's not the warmest year in the era in which we've measured temperatures.

But! The errors on measuring the average global temperature on the planet are pretty high. Because you can't just stick a thermometer in the planet and work out what the mean temperature for the entire globe over 365 days is. It's a difficult measurement.

So, 2014's measurement has a fairly high tolerance. But that's only one year. There are also several hundred other years competing, each with a fairly high tolerance, to, and some of their potential errors put them as warmer than 2014. But no single year is more likely than 2014 to be the warmest year ever.

-

Or conversely, if

tells me that 2014 was not the warmest year ever

Can you tell me which year you think was the warmest ever?

[jimboky]

It wasn't the warmest year here, It was near the coldest on record, however records are new and mean little

[unclejunior]

I remember 1976 as being particularly hot...spent the summer hols hanging out at Larkswood lido ....is nt that conclusive enough for you??

[flatandy]

I see you both have difficulty with the concept of "Global".

[jimboky]

Government agencies saying whatever necessary for them to get government funding,

[unclejunior]

fandy ,my evidence is ever bit as reliable as the gobbledygook that you seem to be relying on......Jimbo has you on toast so far.I was just helping you out.

[flatandy]

And now you're having difficulty with the concept of evidence and data, as well as the concept of global.