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Post by flatandy on May 7, 2017 20:09:26 GMT
That much is true.
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auldhippy
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"There are some ideas so absurd that only an intellectual could believe them." Orwell
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Post by auldhippy on May 7, 2017 20:31:11 GMT
Yayyyyyyyy
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Post by Repat Van on May 7, 2017 21:31:20 GMT
Le Pen was never going to win but 35% is still pretty high for a Fascist party. And much higher than the similar run off in 2002.
Maybe the extreme right is becoming more popular in France (and unlike other countries they seem more popular with the young).
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Post by Repat Van on May 7, 2017 21:33:11 GMT
This IS France after all, La Pen was always a long shot, Curious comment. I would say Le Pen was less of a long shot in France than somewhere like the UK (or even Australia.) |
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Post by flatandy on May 7, 2017 21:42:51 GMT
Le Pen was never going to win but 35% is still pretty high for a Fascist party. And much higher than the similar run off in 2002. Maybe the extreme right is becoming more popular in France (and unlike other countries they seem more popular with the young). Well, MLP - despite being a fascist - is less overtly fascist than JMLP. She's not so explicitly anti-semitic and so on. Add to the fact that the run-off was between a center-left politician and MLP rather than between a corrupt right-winger like Sarkozy and JMLP. Lots of the people on the French right feel more comfortable with a fascist than with a center-leftist. Almost nobody on the French left could bring themselves to vote for JMLP. Many of Fillon's first round supporters drifted to MLP. Anyway, this is another reminder of the weakness of the anti-EU European right. Marine Le Pen lost horribly Geert Wilders lost horribly Even the fascist in Austria couldn't beat a weak livered Green Just today in the Schleswig Holstein local elections in Germany AfD only got 5.5% of the vote. The "Rise of the Right" narrative is so much wishful thinking from the media. Vast majorities in all of the grown up modern European nations remain pro-EU, and the anti-EU neo-fascist parties are repeatedly failing. |
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Post by Repat Van on May 7, 2017 21:45:59 GMT
Le Pen was never going to win but 35% is still pretty high for a Fascist party. And much higher than the similar run off in 2002. Maybe the extreme right is becoming more popular in France (and unlike other countries they seem more popular with the young). Well, MLP - despite being a fascist - is less overtly fascist than JMLP. She's not so explicitly anti-semitic and so on. Add to the fact that the run-off was between a center-left politician and MLP rather than between a corrupt right-winger like Sarkozy and JMLP. Lots of the people on the French right feel more comfortable with a fascist than with a center-leftist. Almost nobody on the French left could bring themselves to vote for JMLP. Many of Fillon's first round supporters drifted to MLP. Anyway, this is another reminder of the weakness of the anti-EU European right. Marine Le Pen lost horribly Geert Wilders lost horribly Even the fascist in Austria couldn't beat a weak livered Green Just today in the Schleswig Holstein local elections in Germany AfD only got 5.5% of the vote. The "Rise of the Right" narrative is so much wishful thinking from the media. Vast majorities in all of the grown up modern European nations remain pro-EU, and the anti-EU neo-fascist parties are repeatedly failing. 2002 was Chirac vs. Le Pen. And that's the point, a corrupt right winger did better in the past than a relatively moderate Centrist today. Although MLP is more moderate than her father but barely. You'd have to be pretty daft to think there is a massive difference between the two. But maybe that's why her support is strongest amongst the young, who maybe more ignorant of who her father is and what the party used to be. I agree partly with the rest. While the European extreme right is still a big and worrying beast in a Europe that claims to be open minded and tolerant it's not as dominant as Mids and parts of the media would like. But 35% is still pretty hefty and I expect parts of the media will be making a lot out of that. |
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Post by flatandy on May 7, 2017 21:54:51 GMT
2002 was Chirac vs. Le Pen. And that's the point, a corrupt right winger did better in the past than a relatively moderate Centrist today. I disagree. If you have someone to the left and someone to the right of you (as the LR voters did this year), you can shift either way. If you have someone to the right of you and someone further to the right of you (as PS voters did in 2002), you will always go least far to the right. Basically, some Tories/"Center" Right types are actually OK with fascism when push comes to shove. It's embarrassing for them. |
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Post by Repat Van on May 7, 2017 21:57:24 GMT
2002 was Chirac vs. Le Pen. And that's the point, a corrupt right winger did better in the past than a relatively moderate Centrist today. I disagree. If you have someone to the left and someone to the right of you (as the LR voters did this year), you can shift either way. If you have someone to the right of you and someone further to the right of you (as PS voters did in 2002), you will always go least far to the right. Basically, some Tories/"Center" Right types are actually OK with fascism when push comes to shove. It's embarrassing for them. That makes no sense. That a sensible right-winger will pick the economic protectionism of the Extreme Right over the more liberal economics of a centrist. |
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Post by flatandy on May 7, 2017 22:00:25 GMT
I see, so you're thinking that no right wingers might be tribally right-wing and therefore choose the right-wing candidate without being too focused on the specifics of policy?
If so, you must not have noticed the US election.
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Post by flatandy on May 7, 2017 22:02:35 GMT
This is interesting - again the comparison between France and UK breaks down.  In France, the Over-70s are absolutely utterly against anti-Europeanism and are proper antifa hardcore. It's the 25-49 age groups, who in Britain voted for Remain, who're more happy to go with the fascists in France. |
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Post by Repat Van on May 7, 2017 22:15:06 GMT
I see, so you're thinking that no right wingers might be tribally right-wing and therefore choose the right-wing candidate without being too focused on the specifics of policy? If so, you must not have noticed the US election. Oh I can see people being tribal. But the tribe is the party. The French Extreme Right is economically closer to Socialists than any right wing party. So your analysis makes no sense. There was no Tribal reason for centrists to be ok with Le Pen over Macron. If anything he is far closer to their Tribe. As I said your analysis makes no sense. It's like suggesting a left leaning centrist would pick the Communists over Blair. |
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Post by Repat Van on May 7, 2017 22:17:22 GMT
This is interesting - again the comparison between France and UK breaks down. In France, the Over-70s are absolutely utterly against anti-Europeanism and are proper antifa hardcore. It's the 25-49 age groups, who in Britain voted for Remain, who're more happy to go with the fascists in France. Yep that has been widely commented on. That unlike many other democracies in France the young are far more in favour of the Nazis than their parents. Possibly because they fee the brunt of French joblessness and so believe her protectionism will help them? |
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Post by flatandy on May 7, 2017 22:20:45 GMT
I see, so you're thinking that no right wingers might be tribally right-wing and therefore choose the right-wing candidate without being too focused on the specifics of policy? If so, you must not have noticed the US election. Oh I can see people being tribal. But the tribe is the party. The French Extreme Right is economically closer to Socialists than any right wing party. So your analysis makes no sense. There was no Tribal reason for centrists to be ok with Le Pen over Macron. If anything he is far closer to their Tribe. As I said your analysis makes no sense. It's like suggesting a left leaning centrist would pick the Communists over Blair. I see you're calling them centrists. The assumption that the 20% who voted for Fillon despite all his scandals were centrists is a bit bizarre. |
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Post by Repat Van on May 7, 2017 23:41:59 GMT
Oh I can see people being tribal. But the tribe is the party. The French Extreme Right is economically closer to Socialists than any right wing party. So your analysis makes no sense. There was no Tribal reason for centrists to be ok with Le Pen over Macron. If anything he is far closer to their Tribe. As I said your analysis makes no sense. It's like suggesting a left leaning centrist would pick the Communists over Blair. I see you're calling them centrists. The assumption that the 20% who voted for Fillon despite all his scandals were centrists is a bit bizarre. Well you made reference to centrists in using your example. The fact remains of you are of the right/centre right you won't shift to the protectionists Extreme right. It makes no sense to vote for somebody who is pro big government and anti privatisation of public services. The analysis doesn't make much sense. Particularly given the age of those with whom Le Pen is most popular (not know for being particularly right of centre.) In both elections the non Le Pen candidate was centre right. So the explanation that right wingers were happy to vote for the right wing candidate over Le Pen in 2002 but not in 2017 doesn't make sense. |
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lala
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Arrgh!! Urrgh!! No!!
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Post by lala on May 8, 2017 6:01:26 GMT
Hooray! Only one out of every three French people was happy to vote for a raving bigot!
EDIT - once you factor in the abstentions and spoiled ballots, Le Pen only got 26% of the vote. Dunno how the 2017 rate of spoilage and abstention compares to 2002, but it is slightly less depressing than the 1 in 3 of actual votes cast. It might suggest that she has barely done any better than her father did.
FURTHER EDIT - Taking abstentions and spoiled ballots into account, Le Pen snr got about 14% of the vote, so Le Pen Jnr has managed to build the far right vote a bit.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2017 6:51:15 GMT
16 million abstentions who, happily, didn't protest vote for FN. Good to see the French people behaving like grown-ups.
Unfortunately for the Tories Macron's a strong EU man; thinks leavers are selfish fools. So May or Davies (who-ever's conducting negotiations) have their work cut out even more.
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mids
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Post by mids on May 8, 2017 7:15:12 GMT
16 million abstentions who, happily, didn't protest vote for FN. Good to see the French people behaving like grown-ups. Unfortunately for the Tories Macron's a strong EU man; thinks leavers are selfish fools. So May or Davies (who-ever's conducting negotiations) have their work cut out even more. Good that'll make a diamond hard Brexit more likely. On another note, if Macron is a massive euphile, does that mean huge massive immigration for France? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2017 7:27:44 GMT
France has an excellent immigration system, unlike the one in the UK during May's time as Home Secretary when she actually admitted more non-EU immigrants than ever before in UK history. [According to EU rules] Immigrants to France must have the means to support themselves and are not eligible for Social Security handouts. So they tend to head straight for the UK where the system's an easy touch.
You have a problem with Immigration, don't blame the EU, blame the UK government: even with a 24 mile wide moat illegals are still flooding in.
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Post by Repat Van on May 8, 2017 7:30:12 GMT
Hooray! Only one out of every three French people was happy to vote for a raving bigot! EDIT - once you factor in the abstentions and spoiled ballots, Le Pen only got 26% of the vote. Dunno how the 2017 rate of spoilage and abstention compares to 2002, but it is slightly less depressing than the 1 in 3 of actual votes cast. It might suggest that she has barely done any better than her father did. FURTHER EDIT - Taking abstentions and spoiled ballots into account, Le Pen snr got about 14% of the vote, so Le Pen Jnr has managed to build the far right vote a bit. I don't see why you would move it to 26%. That would assume all those who were absent have an issue with Le Pen. They could have been fine and dandy with a Le Pen presidency and so not motivated to vote for the opposition. I think it's pretty depressing (although admittedly unsurprising) that 1/3 of the French electorate wanted the Neo-Nazi. Ironically the only other one of my friends depressed with this result (for the same reason as me) is the only one to live in Paris (actually 2, and they both feel the same.) |
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mids
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Post by mids on May 8, 2017 7:31:28 GMT
Still, a quarter of you are fascists so it can't be that great.
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