Chinese water balloon

[Psalms]

No link needed - you all know it's up there, floating over and should be exiting to the Atlantic this weekend.

Lots of military posturing over here, but I think it's really nothing

Anyone concerned?

[mids]

It doesn't bother me. China's always fiddling and I hope we're fiddling with them too. Interesting article about military balloons here.

"China’s ‘spy’ balloon, (or is it an errant weather balloon?), is currently being tracked across America. Picked up above the Aleutian Islands, it was buzzed by US planes above Montana and is now headed eastwards as it is pushed by the prevailing Jet Stream. The Pentagon has decided not to shoot it down; it does not want debris landing on middle America. China insists the balloon is used for meteorological research and strayed because of bad weather. But the incident has prompted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to postpone his trip to China that was scheduled for next week.

Was the balloon inspired by Japan’s Emperor Hirohito? Starting in November 1944 the Japanese army sent Fu-Go (Operation Fu) balloon bombs across the Pacific from various sites along the east coast of Japan’s main island of Honshu. The idea was to start forest fires in the northern states of America. During the five-month campaign some 9,300 Fu-go bombs were launched of which about 385 are thought to have made to the US. They carried several 11-lb incendiaries and a 33-lb bomb.

The balloons were made of washi, the beautiful paper from mulberry bushes that Japan still produces today albeit for more artistic purposes. The washi strips were then glued together by Japanese high school girls and the balloons were brought for final assembly at Ryogoku Kokugikan, the sumo wrestling arena in Tokyo.

They were a pathetically inaccurate weapon. The bomb balloons were found as far apart as North Dakota and Hawaii. One reached as far east as Michigan. There were no reports of forest fires despite Japanese propaganda claims. But there were casualties. Elsie Mitchell, the wife of a preacher, was killed along with five young children when they stumbled upon one of the balloon bombs during a picnic in Fremont National Park in Oregon. It is thought that one of the kids kicked it. They died instantly.

However, one of the bombs did significant damage of some strategic importance. By extraordinary luck rather than judgment one of Hirohito’s bombs landed on the power lines that fed the Hanford Engineer Works located in Washington State. This top-secret facility, part of the Manhattan Project, was producing the plutonium later used in Fat Man, the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki in August 1945. Fortunately for the US – though perhaps not Japan – the reactors were only shut for three days.

Overall however, Hirohito’s balloons were one of those useless fantasy weapons that Japan used in desperation to turn around its fortunes in the Pacific War. Why, then, might Beijing be turning to balloons in its ongoing tussle with the US? Chinese state media is following the balloon’s flight closely; ‘If balloons from other countries could really enter continental US smoothly, or even enter the sky over certain states, it only proves that the US’s air defence system is completely a decoration and cannot be trusted,’ the paper said.

Whatever is going on, the balloon isn’t a one off: ‘this kind of balloon activity have been observed previously over the past several years,’ the Pentagon said. The current Chinese projectile is the latest episode then in the long history of balloon warfare. They were first used as military signalling devices by chancellor Zhuge Liang, a famous Han dynasty leader in the 3rd Century. He is still celebrated in China’s annual Lantern Festival. In Europe, silk balloons were used in the wars of the French Revolution, though Napoleon did not think much of them and disbanded the specialist balloon brigade in 1799.

Fifty years after that Austrian Hapsburg forces dropped bombs from balloons onto Venice during the First Italian War of Independence. Twelve years later, the Union Army of General Irving McDowell used a balloon for artillery observation at the First Battle of Bull Run; they were frequently used thereafter by both Union and Confederate Forces including engagements at Sharpsburg and Fredericksburg.

Britain used balloons to support Imperial adventures in current day Botswana and the Sudan; 15 year later the British Army used them in the Second Boer War, notably at the Siege of Ladysmith in Natal Province.

Such was the fear of balloons that they were banned in the 1899 Hague Convention’s article IV, ‘Declaration of Projectiles from Balloons’ which stated that ‘the contracting powers agree to prohibit, for a term of five years, the launching of projectiles and explosives from balloons or by other new methods of a similar nature.’ The Convention made a timely bid to future proof bombing from the air. Studies on manned flight were already being circulated, though it was four later, in 1903, that the Wright brother made their first powered flight.

Despite the Hague’s best efforts, the proliferation of balloons, and more importantly military aircraft, doomed the banning of bombing. Only desultory attempts were made thereafter. Bizarrely it was Hitler who tried to ban bombing in a proposal to Britain and France in 1936.

Two years later at a meeting in Hitler’s apartment, it was suggested to Neville Chamberlain the idea of bombing women and children was abhorrent – even though it was Hitler’s Condor Legion, commanded by Wolfram von Richthofen, that bombed the ancient Basque town of Guernica on General Franco’s behalf on 26 April 1937 during the Spanish Civil War. Later, of course, Great Britain had to use blimps to defend London from Hitler’s V2 rockets.

In this bizarre balloon episode, Xi Jinping’s name will now be added to the role call of dastardly leaders who have used their intimidatory power. But don’t expect balloon limitation talks anytime soon."

www.spectator.co.uk/article/china-and-the-strange-history-of-balloon-warfare/

[perrykneeham]

The Chinese are full of hot air. Can't say this troubles me particularly, apart from the suggestion that it was intended to be provocative. I don't know what it is that the Chinese can see with a balloon that they can't see from a satellite. Dunno, maybe there's some wavelength that isn't easily monitored from space. It could also be gathering Elint and giving a good picture on inland air defence sensors and coverage. Actually, the more I think about it ....

Mids makes an interesting point about Jap fire barroons, but I guess that with modern communications and GPS, it should be easier to change altitudes at will to take advantage of changes in local winds at low level and the jetstream at high altitude (eeerr .... I think). That sort of mullarky.

The Yanks probably know exactly what it's doing and what it's reporting, but not shooting it down and having incontrovertible proof is probably a shrewd diplomatic move.

[mids]

It makes Johnny Rice look a bit silly and desperate really

[flatandy]

Panic bells it’s red alert
There’s something here from somewhere else
The war machine springs to life
Opens up one eager eye
Focusing it on the sky

[flatandy]

The Yanks could fairly shoot it down, as it’s in our airspace. Totally legit move that the Chinese couldn’t really complain about. They can’t be expecting it to come home.

Also, I don’t think there’s much that can be seen at 50k feet (or whatever altitude it’s at) that can’t be seen from spy satellites. I think it’s probably a test and a provocation rather than a strategic act in itself

The Jap fire balloon death in Oregon is fascinating because - as I understand it - it’s the only death on US soil in either world war caused by opposition weapons..

[voice]

I think the funniest thing about this balloon thing is the exposure of just how fcuking dumb some of the GOP are, loads have been tweeting about shooting it down and encouraging people to shoot their guns at it, MTG, Bobart, Gaetz to name just a few.

Ffs it's at 60,000 feet, twice as high as a commercial jet plane and higher than military fighters can go.

The stupid, it burns.

[perrykneeham]

Shooting it down wouldn't be a problem. The old F-104 could manage 60,000 feet and most could get near enough to launch a missile. It may be that air-to-air missiles might struggle to kill a balloon. Dunno. Guns maybe. I wonder if it is helium filled.

I don't think it's worth the hassle and the very act of knocking it out may reveal something about your own tech. Bear in mind that it's sensors will be working right up to impact.

It's also inviting a tit-for-tat the next time the US flies over contested territory. They fly (and sail) lots of rights of international passage (can't remember the correct term) sorties just to demonstrate to China that the US won't back down where local nations might be intimidated.

[voice]

some Pentagon wonk was on the news yesterday saying missies might struggle to take it out cos they are programmed to hit totally different stuff, planes moving fast, heat signatures that kind of thing and the balloon is more like the decoy stuff they are programmed to avoid. Though they said really its not worth the effort and the risk of it hitting something as it crashed.

I wonder if they'll wait till it clears the coast, then take it down.

I'm not sure I get the hysteria about it though, they already have satellites taking pictures can't see what floating a baloon over would add, other than to stoke hysteria from the usual suspects. And apparently there is another one floating over South America.

[mids]

I hear it's got a label on a string addressed to Biden. "Keep working to bring down the US economy Joe, you're doing well. Best, Xi Jinping."

[perrykneeham]

Feb 4, 2023 17:58:52 GMT voice said:

some Pentagon wonk was on the news yesterday saying missies might struggle to take it out cos they are programmed to hit totally different stuff, planes moving fast, heat signatures that kind of thing and the balloon is more like the decoy stuff they are programmed to avoid. Though they said really its not worth the effort and the risk of it hitting something as it crashed.

I wonder if they'll wait till it clears the coast, then take it down.

I'm not sure I get the hysteria about it though, they already have satellites taking pictures can't see what floating a baloon over would add, other than to stoke hysteria from the usual suspects. And apparently there is another one floating over South America.

Yeah, that's what I thought about missiles but they could probably rig something up. I just don't think they want to.

I think it probably is designed to be a provocation. Best ignored.

[perrykneeham]

It think the argument about debris hitting civ pop is a total red herring, especially over Nebraska or wherever it is now.

[voice]

its over the Atlantic now, and just on the news flights have been suspended from North and South Carolina, so its assumed they are about to bring it down.

[perrykneeham]

Ah. It'll be interesting to see if they recover the wreckage. They will, of course, but they may not say so.

[perrykneeham]

I guess that if it's outside territorial waters, they have no business bringing it down. Freedom of navigation etc.

[voice]

still over US waters presumably, though I doubt anyone's gonna argue if its not

[perrykneeham]

Oh, I disagree. I think the US needs to be absolutely certain about where it is, if they decide to knock it down.

I think they're doing the right thing. The Pentagon seems to be have its act together at the moment.

[voice]

yeah, not many missteps these days

[perrykneeham]

Agreed. I think that perhaps - just perhaps - the Pentagon has won the argument that they're the professionals, not tub-thumping politicians and their advisors.

I doubt it'll last. MacNamara lost the Vietnam War. You could argue that political expedience lost the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There's a horrible paradox for the US as the global policeman: they have to act and the opposition know it. Often the opposition is not obvious.

[voice]

No way to separate it from politics, though competent political leadership is making a difference these days I suppose. I suspect they prefer being listened to when they are being left to figure out the best way of dealing with this stuff than fending off requests for military parades to flatter the fragile ego of the orange baboon.