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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 6:58:28 GMT
I wonder also, if a combined force of Northern European states might have more than enough combined strength to give Moscow a big problem.
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Post by wetkingcanute on Nov 21, 2024 8:59:30 GMT
Also remember that the Russian economy is tiny and getting smaller. It could actually collapses completely.
A few of Putin's "friends" are becoming displeased with him.
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Post by flatandy on Nov 21, 2024 14:36:56 GMT
I'm not sure the Russian economy will collapse completely. The Chinese are paying lots of money for nice Russian black gold. There doesn't seem to be much else to the Russian economy at this point but there's enough money to keep it going.
But at some point the Russian public will become restive, because most of them aren't in the extraction industries and by now there are quite a lot of dead and wounded sons returning or not returning from Ukraine.
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Post by flatandy on Nov 21, 2024 14:46:01 GMT
It's worth remembering of course that Russia is not the USSR, that the Red Army was pretty lame, and that the Russian armed forces have been utterly bloody useless in Ukraine. It is also worth remembering that the UK has it's own nuclear deterrent. Britain's "own" deterrent is still partially controlled by the Americans - and Donald Trump gets to say if we can use it - which isn't great. Any more than the Americans being able to tell Ukraine which of there missiles they can use where. I don't think it's a big worry, because of the weakness of the Russian military. It appears that the Russians are becoming less useless after 3 years of learning some of their mistakes. But their equipment is still shown to be pretty sh*t and obsolete, and the only non-obsolete stuff they have seems to exist in tiny numbers. They don't actually have the money, equipment or manufacturing ability to make decent amounts of really complicated next-gen planes and tanks. Among the things I'd hope the Russians learned over the last three years is that invading western countries is quite a difficult and annoying proposition and if the west really cared they'd be f**k*d. And yes, even without the US, EuroNATO may not have quite as much gear and men but is still way ahead of Russia or Ukraine on tech and would present serious problems if Russia tried to invade, say, Estonia.
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voice
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Post by voice on Nov 21, 2024 15:32:41 GMT
This is why he's upping the nuclear threats though, it's a very big stick, and not at all reliant on his conventional forces, with the US not having NATO's back any more and the UK nukes being held back by the US, that leaves France. I doubt in the face of nukes EUNATO will risk pilling on Russia.
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mids
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Post by mids on Nov 21, 2024 15:50:15 GMT
You're fretting too much. Once Trump's in power, all will be calm.
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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 17:05:29 GMT
"Britain's "own" deterrent is still partially controlled by the Americans - and Donald Trump gets to say if we can use it - which isn't great."
I've heard that said, but I'm not sure it's true. The UK's nuclear deterrent is supposed to be independent.
Happy to be corrected.
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mids
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Post by mids on Nov 21, 2024 17:26:38 GMT
It's not really. I think the Yanks service and supply parts but we could still use the missiles we currently have independently whenever we want. It's doubtful that we ever would without a nod from America although there must be "emergency" situations agreed if they're unable to cooperate. Probably applies at the moment with the Dems in charge.
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voice
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Post by voice on Nov 21, 2024 17:29:15 GMT
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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 17:37:54 GMT
It doesn't appear to be that complicated. I can't see anything there that says that a serviceable UK sub couldn't launch a nuclear weapon.
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voice
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Post by voice on Nov 21, 2024 17:48:09 GMT
"operational independent" sounds good, but I wonder how independent it really is.
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voice
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Post by voice on Nov 21, 2024 17:52:17 GMT
Also we know the Yanks impose restrictions on their kit when it gives/lends it's kit out
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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 17:58:58 GMT
Also we know the Yanks impose restrictions on their kit when it gives/lends it's kit out I can't see any such stipulation.
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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 17:59:58 GMT
"operational independent" sounds good, but I wonder how independent it really is. Well, if a nuclear delivery platform is operational, it is capable of just that.
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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 18:02:51 GMT
This is starting to sound like a libLeft shibboleth and, accordingly, tripe.
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Post by flatandy on Nov 21, 2024 18:30:56 GMT
Interesting. So it's really a borderline case. If Britain wanted to use Trident when the US was opposed, the US could just turn off all the navigation. So it sort of has a de facto veto. But perhaps it doesn't have quite the control that the mythology usually states.
It's weird to be "loaned" a missile, though. How does lending work where the thing only exists so it can be destroyed? Are we meant to give it back after we've launched it?
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mids
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Post by mids on Nov 21, 2024 18:35:32 GMT
What, turn off GPS?
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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 18:37:17 GMT
Sail or return? It's not that unusual. All that kit in WW2 was on lend-lease.
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Post by perrykneeham on Nov 21, 2024 18:39:56 GMT
I'm not seeing anything to substantiate the claim that the US has to give the nod to the practical use of UK's nuclear deterrent. It has always felt a bit AMU. It's not like the Yanks controlled a the free fall stuff that we gave up in the 90s.
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Post by flatandy on Nov 21, 2024 18:47:48 GMT
The Yanks clearly didn't control British nukes in the past. I think Polaris, even, was pretty British. Trident is different because it's all owned by the Yanks and they have control over lots of aspects of its maintenance. And, as Mids notes, can switch off or scramble GPS pretty swiftly if they see a British nuke heading somewhere they don't like.
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