Ukraine

[perrykneeham]

Worth it's own thread now, I suppose.

"Europe faces "the most dangerous moment" in its "biggest security crisis" for decades, Boris Johnson has said as tensions grow between Russia and Ukraine.

Speaking in Brussels, the PM said he hoped "strong deterrence" and "patient diplomacy" could find a way through the crisis but the stakes were "very high".

Russia denies it plans to invade but has 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border.

Mr Johnson is also visiting Poland to show support for Nato allies.

In a joint news conference with Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, the prime minister said he did not believe Russia had yet taken a decision on whether to invade Ukraine but the UK's intelligence "remains grim"."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60326142

[perrykneeham]

I think maybe Putin's made the case for a) Ukraine joining NATO and b) stationing NATO troops on Russia's borders.

Bored of Putin now. I suppose it's instructive that the UK is doing its usual duty as a proxy for the US. We're sending political missions to make the position known, so that the US can avoid engagement at this point. Both parties know that this is a carefully calibrated response and a bit ofva bitchslap.

[flatandy]

Yeah. I think Putin's made a very good case for every post-Soviet (and post-Warsaw pact) country to be allowed to join NATO. He's made it very, very clear that the current Russian government can't be trusted, and will likely try and repeat what they did in Transnistria and South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

[perrykneeham]

The NATO-on-our-borders argument is utterly bogus, given how many border countries are already NATO members.

[wetkingcanute]

Some Sabre!

Some Rattle!

[perrykneeham]

Pfft! It's not actually many troops or much kit.

[flatandy]

130,000 troops does sound like a lot on the surface. But I keep thinking that despite western media saying "it's enough to invade Ukraine" that it's probably small enough that things would get very messy very quickly. It's not an overwhelming force. It's the sort of numbers that Donald Rumsfeld kept saying were enough for small regular repeated interventions for external power moves by the US. The kind that got found out pretty quickly in Iraq and Afghanistan, countries that had less compelling defenses and that had been bombed to sh*t beforehand.

[wetkingcanute]

So the question is: Has Putin mis-calculated, will he loose face?

Do we have to make sure that, like Kennedy did with Khrushchev, we don't let him loose face?

[perrykneeham]

Feb 10, 2022 19:19:02 GMT flatandy said:

130,000 troops does sound like a lot on the surface. But I keep thinking that despite western media saying "it's enough to invade Ukraine" that it's probably small enough that things would get very messy very quickly. It's not an overwhelming force. It's the sort of numbers that Donald Rumsfeld kept saying were enough for small regular repeated interventions for external power moves by the US. The kind that got found out pretty quickly in Iraq and Afghanistan, countries that had less compelling defenses and that had been bombed to sh*t beforehand.

Yeah, it's not enough to seize and hold. it's a weekend bag, not a suitcase.. the Yanks know this. Otherwise, you'd be seeing a lot more activity on the transporting tanks into theatre front. The worry is that the Yanks wl will do that once this settles down, thereby dignifying Putin's nonsense. In my experience the Pentagon people are cleverer than that

[voice]

Hey at least we can witness Boris being as terrible a war leader as he is during peace time...

[perrykneeham]

Careful, he's probably just the man for that.

[voice]

Seriously I wonder if Putin has talked himself into a corner where he can't back down and has to go ahead with some military adventure that may not be a walk in a park?

Though if anything has shown why its in Ukraine's interest to be in NATO its this.

[perrykneeham]

Starmer, in the other hand, would be perfect as the head of a Russian puppet government. Erich Honecker, except less popular.

[perrykneeham]

My son tells me he's thinking about joining the Paras, TA.

Not great timing, son.

[voice]

not to worry, we don't have any planes left for them to jump out of remember.

[perrykneeham]

True dat.

[mids]

Feb 10, 2022 21:22:35 GMT perrykneeham said:

My son tells me he's thinking about joining the Paras, TA.

Not great timing, son.

I did that, many years ago. P Company is fuckin hard.

[Psalms]

I don't think Ukraine is worth President Putin's bother. So much land war and the aftermath for what? He's done the calculations

[perrykneeham]

Feb 10, 2022 23:43:07 GMT mids said:

Feb 10, 2022 21:22:35 GMT perrykneeham said:

My son tells me he's thinking about joining the Paras, TA.

Not great timing, son.

I did that, many years ago. P Company is fuckin hard.

Yeah, I remember you'd done it. I think that's the attraction. He and his mates are all fitness fanatics so they see it as a good thing to do together. He's very athletic and will run 30Km across the Downs and feel nothing but the weather. I could never run like that it was always hard work.

[perrykneeham]

The dance continues.....

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60355295

It may be that the US/UK alliance has played a blinder here: they've double-teamed Putin and basically said "well, we've tried to meet you halfway but, if you're going to do it, do it".

He's now got to piss or getting off the pot. The important thing is that he is seen to get precisely zero concessions, nor can he claim that NATO was deliberately and cynically stage-managing the militarization of Ukraine by sending divisions of armour in.