Ukraine

[perrykneeham]

Macron was made to look pretty stupid:

www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/

To be fair, at least he tried, and Putin is an arsehole, so it's a sticky wicket. I was interested by the unsympathetic tone of the article.

[bertruss2]

If you haven't learned Orwellian speak, this conflict is puzzling. NATO massing tens of thousands of troops on the borders of Ukraine is defence. Russia doing the same is aggression. NATO nuclear missiles are benign, Russian nuclear missiles are evil.

[perrykneeham]

You might have a point if NATO had actually done that.

[Psalms]

Maybe US soldiers are already on the ground in the Ukraine and the Russians will be there too in a few days, maybe on Wednesday . .

[perrykneeham]

I'm certain there are quite a few advisers on the ground. And technicians.

[jimboky]

nothing to worry about, Biden is having a talk with Putin and all will be fixed

[flatandy]

More importantly, it appears that some Russian generals are having a quiet chat with Putin.

[perrykneeham]

It's still quite difficult to see what he's hoping to get out of this, apart from the trivial, menial stuff we've discussed.

NATO can blow Russia into bloody rags if it had to, but I heard some I interesting thoughts today about how Putin can see his own demise in a prosperous democratic Ukraine, just across the border. My reservation with that theory is that both Poland and the Baltic states are already waving their coxks at Russia. Why is Ukraine different?

[voice]

I suspect cos Ukraine was subsumed into first the Russian empire then the USSR for a very long time, so there's a bigger sense of damaged national pride that they got their independence. That and the Russian minority.

[perrykneeham]

Hmmmm ... probably true of both Poland and the Baltics too. Remember Katyn: that was especially needy.

I have just had dinner with my son and his anglo-polish girlfriend. She has absolutely no idea about Poland or history whatsoever. Like, zero. Oh, and she's crazy clever, just didn't do history at school and her super-wealthy, Cambridge educated Polish parents don't give a toss.

[flatandy]

My recollection is that very little of what is now Poland was ever technically part of Russia. I think one chunk was for a bit of the 19th century. For most of the last 1000 years it was Poland, Lithuania or Prussia.

[perrykneeham]

Yeah that sounds about right. Battle of the Vistula and all that, but seriously under the cosh.

TBH, it makes you wonder if it isn't time for Russia to get a good arse-kicking and take a new direction. Nothing is forever.

[voice]

Yeah the Baltic states for sure,but they clamored to get into NATO almost as soon as the USSR collapsed, I'm sure were they not already members Putin would be very focused on them never getting in. Ukraine had pro Russia autocratic for quite some time before looking west. A matter of timing really

[bertruss2]

The Baltic states joined the EU and NATO in the same year, 2004.The development of an EU defence alliance has to contend with the huge obstacle of American-controlled NATO standing in its way. That explains why the Baltic States are members of a military organisation which serves American foreign policy aims.

[perrykneeham]

Does it? Not because NATO is the only credible alliance in Europe?

Have a day off, Bertie.

[flatandy]

The chatter is interestingly specific now - that there’ll be a false flag operation and everything will kick off on Wednesday. I assume that the west and Ukrainians are putting this out there so that if that’s what the Russians actually do it’s very clear that it is a ruse. I think it’s strategically intelligent, as a PR game, but am also concerned that because of the specificity it feels more likely to happen no matter how badly it would pan out for the Russians.

I do wonder if the Russians have been hoping that some underling in the Ukrainian forces is going to get nervous and twitchy and shoot first to give them an excuse, too.

[bertruss2]

Not because NATO is the only credible alliance in Europe?

You're not very quick on the uptake. NATO is the 'credible' EU military alliance but it is under American control. The problem with NATO is not its military 'credibility' but that it serves American foreign policy. It has the great advantage for America that it blocks the development of an EU Defence Alliance. Kick the Americans out of NATO and you have the basis for a 'credible' military alliance and one which doesn't put us in the front line of the confrontation between the USA and Russia.

[jimboky]

Feb 13, 2022 12:34:10 GMT bertruss2 said:

Not because NATO is the only credible alliance in Europe?

You're not very quick on the uptake. NATO is the 'credible' EU military alliance but it is under American control. The problem with NATO is not its military 'credibility' but that it serves American foreign policy. It has the great advantage for America that it blocks the development of an EU Defence Alliance. Kick the Americans out of NATO and you have the basis for a 'credible' military alliance and one which doesn't put us in the front line of the confrontation between the USA and Russia.

agree, also kick the USA out of UN,

[perrykneeham]

Feb 13, 2022 12:34:10 GMT bertruss2 said:

Not because NATO is the only credible alliance in Europe?

You're not very quick on the uptake. NATO is the 'credible' EU military alliance but it is under American control. The problem with NATO is not its military 'credibility' but that it serves American foreign policy. It has the great advantage for America that it blocks the development of an EU Defence Alliance. Kick the Americans out of NATO and you have the basis for a 'credible' military alliance and one which doesn't put us in the front line of the confrontation between the USA and Russia.

Don't be ridiculous. NATO's and theor members' interests are very closely aligned.

[jimboky]

The US interest is keeping Russia out of Europe, only Europe don't seem to want them out, not a battle field I'd want to die on