Ukraine

[flatandy]

I still think Putin will stand down, for the reasons we’ve gone over before. But I think creating lots of false flag things in Donbas that Russia responds to gives his troops something to do that doesn’t involve extended warfare, and doesn’t involve sending home lots of body bags, and doesn’t involve excessive sanctions. It would stop it looking completely like he’s going home with his tail between his legs, even though he’d be going home with his tail between his legs.

I’m only maybe 25% confident in my prediction, but it seems like the obvious way forward from where we are that does the least harm to Putin. Have his troops do something, but make sure that it’s not an invasion of “Ukraine”. As long as the Russians consider the breakaway non-states to not be Ukraine, they can get away with that.

[bertruss2]

creating lots of false flag things in Donbas

There have been tens of thousands of casualties in the Donbas conflict since 2014. It didn't start when it began causing excitement among armchair warriors in the last month or so. The Azov Battalion, the Neo-Nazi Ukrainian National Guard unit, has been active for years. No shortage of horrors caused by them and forces on both sides to stoke up fear and hatred without relying on the latest incidents, accurately reported or not.

[flatandy]

So you’re saying that the Russians should invade anyway, and it’s entirely reasonable? There’s no need to find any extra reasons?

[perrykneeham]

Feb 19, 2022 11:36:31 GMT bertruss2 said:

creating lots of false flag things in Donbas

There have been tens of thousands of casualties in the Donbas conflict since 2014. It didn't start when it began causing excitement among armchair warriors in the last month or so. The Azov Battalion, the Neo-Nazi Ukrainian National Guard unit, has been active for years. No shortage of horrors caused by them and forces on both sides to stoke up fear and hatred without relying on the latest incidents, accurately reported or not.

Tens of thousands of casualties? Really?

Link, if you please.

[flatandy]

Wiki has it at about 13,000; the Ukrainians say about 14,000

[perrykneeham]

"The Azov Battalion, the Neo-Nazi Ukrainian National Guard unit" are hardly the Einsatzgruppen.

Please list their atrocities. From what I can see, they are guilty of some amateurish TA interrogations and bumming a village idiot. Was it you?

I suspect your real problem with that group, over 50% of whom are Russian speakers, is that they're right wing, allegedly.

[perrykneeham]

Feb 19, 2022 11:47:54 GMT flatandy said:

Wiki has it at about 13,000; the Ukrainians say about 14,000

If which deaths seem to be 4-5,000.

Come on Bertie, buck your ideas up.

[perrykneeham]

Bertie.ru

[flatandy]

Nah. That 13,000 is total deaths. 5000 Ukrainian troops, 5000 Separatist troops, 3000 civilians. Give or take.

[perrykneeham]

Incidental wow!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolay_Kasatkin

I don't know much* about art, but .....


*Probably an overestimate.

[bertruss2]

Feb 19, 2022 11:43:53 GMT flatandy said:

So you’re saying that the Russians should invade anyway, and it’s entirely reasonable? There’s no need to find any extra reasons?

Not on UN rules. But America and Russia are playing on realpolitik rules.

[perrykneeham]

Haha!

[ootlg]

Feb 19, 2022 12:01:17 GMT perrykneeham said:

Incidental wow!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolay_Kasatkin

I don't know much* about art, but .....


*Probably an overestimate.

Wow indeed. Fantastic painter. I'll have to forward the link to Mrs Ootlg.

[ootlg]

I see Bunter Johnson's ramping it up in Munich, trying to be the statesman. Great subterfuge.

[perrykneeham]

Feb 19, 2022 13:19:29 GMT ootlg said:

Feb 19, 2022 12:01:17 GMT perrykneeham said:

Incidental wow!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolay_Kasatkin

I don't know much* about art, but .....


*Probably an overestimate.

Wow indeed. Fantastic painter. I'll have to forward the link to Mrs Ootlg.

I don't know how people see light like that let alone put that down in paint.

[mids]

The Poor People Picking Up Coal one looks like a photograph.

[perrykneeham]

Yeah, stunning.

[voice]

Johnsons in Munich you say, should we expect 'peace in our time' as Russia is finally allowed to swallow any bits of Ukraine it wants whole?

[mids]

Bestriding the world stage like a colossus.

[voice]

Channeling the PM from the war years he most resembles, Nevil Chamberlin...