Millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics

[Repat Van]

Some random news to start of the year.

“If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35 you have no brain.” So said Winston Churchill. Or US president John Adams. Or perhaps King Oscar II of Sweden. Variations of this aphorism have circulated since the 18th century, underscoring the well-established rule that as people grow older, they tend to become more conservative.”

“The pattern has held remarkably firm. By my calculations, members of Britain’s “silent generation”, born between 1928 and 1945, were five percentage points less conservative than the national average at age 35, but around five points more conservative by age 70. The “baby boomer” generation traced the same path, and “Gen X”, born between 1965 and 1980, are now following suit.

Millennials — born between 1981 and 1996 — started out on the same trajectory, but then something changed. The shift has striking implications for the UK’s Conservatives and US Republicans, who can no longer simply rely on their base being replenished as the years pass.

…..

UK millennials and their “Gen Z” younger cousins will probably cast more votes than boomers in the next general election. After years of being considered an electoral afterthought, their vote will soon be pivotal. Without drastic changes to both policy and messaging, that could consign conservative parties to an increasingly distant second place.”

So does it matter? Is that just the way of the world? If the younger generation are overturning the rule that people become more conservative as they age then what does this mean for Conservative politics? Also what could be causing millennials to buck the trend of generations before them?


www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4

(I would post the full article but accidentally closed the page and lost the article.)

[ootlg]

Are millenials bucking the trend though? What's the evidence to show this? The logic is that we all want to rip up the rule book when young but get older and wiser as we learn that rules were made for a reason. I don't see how politics has much of a bearing on this. They've made a massive leap from philosophy to politics in the article - what's left of it.

[flatandy]

The theory is that all other age groups have started to turn into Tory scum by the time they’re about 40. The Millennials haven’t yet, despite reaching that age.

[perrykneeham]

So young people are getting thicker? Makes sense.

[mids]

Immigration'll do that to a population.

[voice]

I've never thought this adage was that grounded in reality, sure some as they get older compromise sell out and become Quizlings, but lots do not become odious tory scum. I'd also say lots are tory scum from a young age and remain so as they addle.

[perrykneeham]

Depressingly, given the ready availability of knowledge, Millennial do often seem to be horribly ill-informed and susceptible to idiotic, convenient explanations.

Also, they are so weak in their causes: they all shout the odds about the environment but they can't be arsed to recycle. There's always a reason why they don't need to trouble themselves: Big Refuse is making money off us etc.

[mids]

Yeah, it looks like the decades of school indoctrination is coming to fruition in the form of millennials unable to think rationally.

[flatandy]

You’d think that having been in power for the last 4 decades the Tories might have managed to do something with that education system that did just make the millennials and Zoomers hate the Tories.

[mids]

The blob. Etc.

[wetkingcanute]

The old joke goes that you're left wing until you open your first pay check and see all the tax you have to pay.

[flatandy]

I’m glad we agree that it’s a joke

[Repat Van]

Jan 2, 2023 15:04:59 GMT ootlg said:

Are millenials bucking the trend though? What's the evidence to show this? The logic is that we all want to rip up the rule book when young but get older and wiser as we learn that rules were made for a reason. I don't see how politics has much of a bearing on this. They've made a massive leap from philosophy to politics in the article - what's left of it.

Check out the article.

[Repat Van]

Jan 2, 2023 18:37:42 GMT mids said:

Immigration'll do that to a population.

That attempt at a joke would have worked if the USA was not one of the main countries under discussion…

[Repat Van]

Jan 2, 2023 18:49:27 GMT voice said:

I've never thought this adage was that grounded in reality, sure some as they get older compromise sell out and become Quizlings, but lots do not become odious tory scum. I'd also say lots are tory scum from a young age and remain so as they addle.

But it does seem that Millenials are - overall - bucking the trend of becoming more conservative as they age. It would be interesting to see why that is.

[Repat Van]

Jan 2, 2023 19:02:00 GMT mids said:

Yeah, it looks like the decades of school indoctrination is coming to fruition in the form of millennials unable to think rationally.

Maybe this is where conservatives are lacking. Rather than make a case for their politics they just insist anybody who holds a different opinion is “failing to think rationally.”

The irony is this is something they frequently accuse Left-Wingers of doing.

[flatandy]

It could be that millennials are having kids later and buying houses later and staying in education longer and so on, and therefore they might also turn into selfish arseholes later in life but it might still happen. I wouldn’t rely on it if I was a Tory scum strategist, but there’s a possibility.

[flatandy]

Equally, it’s possible that anyone born after 1980 knows that they can never buy a house and won’t get a state pension and knows the system is screwed and knows it needs fixing desperately. So voting to entrench the current system might seem like a terrible idea.

Also, of course, the idiot conservatives have doubled down on culture war sh*t. So even if the millennials wanted lower taxes they won’t vote for hatred and spite and nastiness, because they actually grew up with people who weren’t white and straight and cis.

[perrykneeham]

I know plenty of my kids' generation who have bought houses and have started pension plans.

They seem to be doing just fine.

[Repat Van]

Jan 3, 2023 2:00:56 GMT flatandy said:

Equally, it’s possible that anyone born after 1980 knows that they can never buy a house and won’t get a state pension and knows the system is screwed and knows it needs fixing desperately. So voting to entrench the current system might seem like a terrible idea.

Also, of course, the idiot conservatives have doubled down on culture war sh*t. So even if the millennials wanted lower taxes they won’t vote for hatred and spite and nastiness, because they actually grew up with people who weren’t white and straight and cis.

The second point is actually an excellent one and it’s interesting how in so many Western countries Conservatives do so badly with immigrants / ethnic minorities giver just how conservative these populations actually tend to be. Canada is the only one that saw sense but UK and especially US conservatives have not figured out that even if people may agree with you on fiscal policy and some social issues doubling down on hatred towards them will dissuade them from voting for you.