Millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics

[ootlg]

Jan 3, 2023 14:52:55 GMT Repat Van said:

Jan 3, 2023 12:30:45 GMT ootlg said:

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[mids]

Maybe it's a euphemism?

[Repat Van]

Jan 3, 2023 16:15:24 GMT ootlg said:

Jan 3, 2023 14:52:55 GMT Repat Van said:

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“If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35 you have no brain.” So said Winston Churchill. Or US president John Adams. Or perhaps King Oscar II of Sweden. Variations of this aphorism have circulated since the 18th century, underscoring the well-established rule that as people grow older, they tend to become more conservative.

The pattern has held remarkably firm. By my calculations, members of Britain’s “silent generation”, born between 1928 and 1945, were five percentage points less conservative than the national average at age 35, but around five points more conservative by age 70. The “baby boomer” generation traced the same path, and “Gen X”, born between 1965 and 1980, are now following suit.

Millennials — born between 1981 and 1996 — started out on the same trajectory, but then something changed. The shift has striking implications for the UK’s Conservatives and US Republicans, who can no longer simply rely on their base being replenished as the years pass.


It’s not every day that concepts from public health analytics find a use in politics, but if you’re a strategist on the right, then now might be a good time for a primer on untangling age, period and cohort effects. Age effects are changes that happen over someone’s life regardless of when they are born, period effects result from events that affect all ages simultaneously, and cohort effects stem from differences that emerge among people who experience a common event at the same time.



This framework is used to understand differences in a population and whether they are likely to be lasting. This makes it perfectly suited to interrogating why support for conservative parties is so low among millennials and whether it will stay there.

Let’s start with age effects, and the oldest rule in politics: people become more conservative with age. If millennials’ liberal inclinations are merely a result of this age effect, then at age 35 they too should be around five points less conservative than the national average, and can be relied upon to gradually become more conservative. In fact, they’re more like 15 points less conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history.

On to period effects. Could some force be pushing voters of all ages away from the right? In the UK there has certainly been an event. Support for the Tories plummeted across all ages during Liz Truss’s brief tenure, and has only partially rebounded. But a population-wide effect cannot completely explain millennials’ liberal exceptionalism, nor why we see the same pattern in the US without the same shock.

So the most likely explanation is a cohort effect — that millennials have developed different values to previous generations, shaped by experiences unique to them, and they do not feel conservatives share these.

This is borne out by US survey data showing that, having reached political maturity in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, millennials are tacking much further to the left on economics than previous generations did, favouring greater redistribution from rich to poor.

Similar patterns are evident in Britain, where millennials are more economically leftwing than Gen-Xers and boomers were at the same age, and Brexit has alienated a higher share of former Tory backers among this generation than any other. Even before Truss, two-thirds of millennials who had backed the Conservatives before the EU referendum were no longer planning to vote for the party again, and one in four said they now strongly disliked the Tories.


The data is clear that millennials are not simply going to age into conservatism. To reverse a cohort effect, you have to do something for that cohort. Home ownership continues to prove more elusive for millennials than for earlier generations at the same age in both countries. With houses increasingly difficult to afford, a good place to start would be to help more millennials get on to the housing ladder. Serious proposals for reforming two of the world’s most expensive childcare systems would be another.

UK millennials and their “Gen Z” younger cousins will probably cast more votes than boomers in the next general election. After years of being considered an electoral afterthought, their vote will soon be pivotal. Without drastic changes to both policy and messaging, that could consign conservative parties to an increasingly distant second place.”

There are graphs highlighting the change clearly but I cannot post them.

[ootlg]

Jan 3, 2023 14:47:15 GMT flatandy said:

Are you suggesting they don't? The UK Conservative Party definitely does, and has been increasingly doing so in recent years following the conservative movement in general. It's pathetically following the right-wing UK media, which itself is pathetically following the US Republican Party, which is itself following the trolly bloggers and talking heads of the US right-wing media. You just need to look at the comments on these pages about muslims or black people or gays or trans people or immigrants or jews or whichever minority group to know that it's now the core of right-wingery. They only marginally care about tax rates and instead mostly care about the Culture War nonsense. It gets clicks. It gets them to think they've pwned teh left.

It would also explain why they're losing support of people who should by this point - according to the theory - be becoming selfish, self-absorbed arseholes only concerned about preserving their property prices and making sure their money isn't being redistributed to people who need it more.

You've touched on the important point here which is the media, notably the so-called right-wing media, which is the origin of and therefore responsible for most of the bile which circulates. It does this to make money, aware that there's a strong market on hate material. The next question is why is there a strong market? Well, it's a huge and complex question, but it seems to come from those who feel their culture and traditions are under threat; which is quite understandable and quite normal, but instead of this being dealt with in a positive and imaginative way, like say, sharing out more of the common wealth (one word) and setting up a system to reassure the locals while helping the newbies, you know, being understanding of the social circumstances likely to cause discord, they're using the potential for discord to make money. If it's politics you're into, you have to take a look at which political factions benefit financially from a media like this; who's friends with who etc. No single political party is to blame here, buty certain members of certain political parties are.

[mids]

It's probably due to a delayed maturity effect. Millennials start work and families later than previous generations so their heads are filled with teenage frivolity and wankiness for longer. This stunts their intellectual and emotional growth so naturally, they stay left wing. I suppose the question is whether this a permanent retardation or if they'll catch up eventually.

[ootlg]

Jan 3, 2023 16:21:59 GMT Repat Van said:

Jan 3, 2023 16:15:24 GMT ootlg said:

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“If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35 you have no brain.” So said Winston Churchill. Or US president John Adams. Or perhaps King Oscar II of Sweden. Variations of this aphorism have circulated since the 18th century, underscoring the well-established rule that as people grow older, they tend to become more conservative.

The pattern has held remarkably firm. By my calculations, members of Britain’s “silent generation”, born between 1928 and 1945, were five percentage points less conservative than the national average at age 35, but around five points more conservative by age 70. The “baby boomer” generation traced the same path, and “Gen X”, born between 1965 and 1980, are now following suit.

Millennials — born between 1981 and 1996 — started out on the same trajectory, but then something changed. The shift has striking implications for the UK’s Conservatives and US Republicans, who can no longer simply rely on their base being replenished as the years pass.


It’s not every day that concepts from public health analytics find a use in politics, but if you’re a strategist on the right, then now might be a good time for a primer on untangling age, period and cohort effects. Age effects are changes that happen over someone’s life regardless of when they are born, period effects result from events that affect all ages simultaneously, and cohort effects stem from differences that emerge among people who experience a common event at the same time.



This framework is used to understand differences in a population and whether they are likely to be lasting. This makes it perfectly suited to interrogating why support for conservative parties is so low among millennials and whether it will stay there.

Let’s start with age effects, and the oldest rule in politics: people become more conservative with age. If millennials’ liberal inclinations are merely a result of this age effect, then at age 35 they too should be around five points less conservative than the national average, and can be relied upon to gradually become more conservative. In fact, they’re more like 15 points less conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history.

On to period effects. Could some force be pushing voters of all ages away from the right? In the UK there has certainly been an event. Support for the Tories plummeted across all ages during Liz Truss’s brief tenure, and has only partially rebounded. But a population-wide effect cannot completely explain millennials’ liberal exceptionalism, nor why we see the same pattern in the US without the same shock.

So the most likely explanation is a cohort effect — that millennials have developed different values to previous generations, shaped by experiences unique to them, and they do not feel conservatives share these.

This is borne out by US survey data showing that, having reached political maturity in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, millennials are tacking much further to the left on economics than previous generations did, favouring greater redistribution from rich to poor.

Similar patterns are evident in Britain, where millennials are more economically leftwing than Gen-Xers and boomers were at the same age, and Brexit has alienated a higher share of former Tory backers among this generation than any other. Even before Truss, two-thirds of millennials who had backed the Conservatives before the EU referendum were no longer planning to vote for the party again, and one in four said they now strongly disliked the Tories.


The data is clear that millennials are not simply going to age into conservatism. To reverse a cohort effect, you have to do something for that cohort. Home ownership continues to prove more elusive for millennials than for earlier generations at the same age in both countries. With houses increasingly difficult to afford, a good place to start would be to help more millennials get on to the housing ladder. Serious proposals for reforming two of the world’s most expensive childcare systems would be another.

UK millennials and their “Gen Z” younger cousins will probably cast more votes than boomers in the next general election. After years of being considered an electoral afterthought, their vote will soon be pivotal. Without drastic changes to both policy and messaging, that could consign conservative parties to an increasingly distant second place.”

There are graphs highlighting the change clearly but I cannot post them.

Thanks for that.

There's a lot of supposition and guesswork in that article, and don't forget it's survey data, always questionable.

I'd guess it's a lot to do with internet social media, something earlier generations didn't have - even I get changed by some views here - but I'm tending to fall back on the home ownership and personal wealth angle here: as soon as the malcontents get their inheritances, they'll change. Those that don't will stay jealous malcontents, hateful of the older generations.

[voice]

It's not malcontents though is it, it's that more are seeing things clearly and not turning total evil cunts in later life by going all tory scum. And really while there is some truth that many drift towards tory scuminess in latter life, many dont, and many were irredeemably evil tory scum from an early age.

[voice]

Also the right have always been racist secret mysoganistic incel trabsphobic gay vashing scum. So while the right of other cultures/groups share much of the same Outlook, they still hate each other cos they 'other' everyone who is not a carbon copy of themselves.

[Repat Van]

Jan 3, 2023 16:33:27 GMT ootlg said:

Jan 3, 2023 14:47:15 GMT flatandy said:

Are you suggesting they don't? The UK Conservative Party definitely does, and has been increasingly doing so in recent years following the conservative movement in general. It's pathetically following the right-wing UK media, which itself is pathetically following the US Republican Party, which is itself following the trolly bloggers and talking heads of the US right-wing media. You just need to look at the comments on these pages about muslims or black people or gays or trans people or immigrants or jews or whichever minority group to know that it's now the core of right-wingery. They only marginally care about tax rates and instead mostly care about the Culture War nonsense. It gets clicks. It gets them to think they've pwned teh left.

It would also explain why they're losing support of people who should by this point - according to the theory - be becoming selfish, self-absorbed arseholes only concerned about preserving their property prices and making sure their money isn't being redistributed to people who need it more.

You've touched on the important point here which is the media, notably the so-called right-wing media, which is the origin of and therefore responsible for most of the bile which circulates. It does this to make money, aware that there's a strong market on hate material. The next question is why is there a strong market? Well, it's a huge and complex question, but it seems to come from those who feel their culture and traditions are under threat; which is quite understandable and quite normal, but instead of this being dealt with in a positive and imaginative way, like say, sharing out more of the common wealth (one word) and setting up a system to reassure the locals while helping the newbies, you know, being understanding of the social circumstances likely to cause discord, they're using the potential for discord to make money. If it's politics you're into, you have to take a look at which political factions benefit financially from a media like this; who's friends with who etc. No single political party is to blame here, buty certain members of certain political parties are.

I am at a loss as to why anybody would think their “culture and traditions are under threat”? It seems to be based on nothing?

[Repat Van]

The main thing is this puts conservative politics in trouble if the trend is true and holds.

Older generations will die out and the younger will stay on the left and/or liberal side leaving a naturally shrinking conservative voter base.

[perrykneeham]

Haha! No chance.

[ootlg]

"I am at a loss as to why anybody would think their “culture and traditions are under threat”? It seems to be based on nothing?"

Remember Brexit? Most of whom voted out for that reason?

[mids]

I see this is only being observed in the anglosphere. In the rest of Europe it's business as usual.

[ootlg]

It seems that way; in fact it's a US thing, no? I have millenial offspring and they said it was meaningless to them: one's doing very well in Denmark, the other's chosen a libertarian sort of existence and generally distrusts any government.

[Repat Van]

Jan 4, 2023 8:03:59 GMT ootlg said:

"I am at a loss as to why anybody would think their “culture and traditions are under threat”? It seems to be based on nothing?"

Remember Brexit? Most of whom voted out for that reason?

I don’t think that’s true.

And even if it is true it does not answer my question.

[Repat Van]

Jan 4, 2023 8:51:53 GMT mids said:

I see this is only being observed in the anglosphere. In the rest of Europe it's business as usual.

You mean millenials are becoming right-wing as they age?

Link?

[mids]

[Repat Van]

Jan 4, 2023 11:19:15 GMT ootlg said:

It seems that way; in fact it's a US thing, no? I have millenial offspring and they said it was meaningless to them: one's doing very well in Denmark, the other's chosen a libertarian sort of existence and generally distrusts any government.

What is meaningless to them?

[flatandy]

It’s interesting that these data are relative to the national average rather than to a neutral baseline. So the whole country might be lots more right wing and the millennials are just moderately right wing.

Also, there’s an uptick in anglophone right-winginess exactly the same distance from the end of each line of boomers/Xers/Silents that is caused by the leftiness of millennials not caused by any actual change in the geriatrics.

[ootlg]

Jan 4, 2023 12:49:55 GMT Repat Van said:

Jan 4, 2023 11:19:15 GMT ootlg said:

It seems that way; in fact it's a US thing, no? I have millenial offspring and they said it was meaningless to them: one's doing very well in Denmark, the other's chosen a libertarian sort of existence and generally distrusts any government.

What is meaningless to them?

The argument the article's trying to present as fact.