General Election 2024

[perrykneeham]

I thought it might be instructive to have a separate thread for this, not least so that we can look back at how our perceptions changed, or not, and how close our original predictions were.

[perrykneeham]

On the basis of the recent council elections, the improving economic outlook and Starmer's utter uselessness, but factoring in the stupid, greedy and selfish behaviour of some poor Tories, I'm saying we're still in Hung Parliament territory.

[mids]

Good idea. Labour are cunts.

[mids]

May 23, 2024 7:51:25 GMT perrykneeham said:

On the basis of the recent council elections, the improving economic outlook and Starmer's utter uselessness, but factoring in the stupid, greedy and selfish behaviour of some poor Tories, I'm saying we're still in Hung Parliament territory.

I'm not so sure. I'm thinking a small to medium majority. Starmer also has the postal vote although maybe he'll lose some of that because he hasn't actually got killing all Jews as a policy. I'm feeling homeless in this election. I don't want to vote for the Tories but there isn't anyone else.

[perrykneeham]

Yeah, I'm much the same. Again, hostage to fortune, but I can't see the Tories losing here at the moment.

[moggyonspeed]

Same here.

Whilst some Tory voters of yore may jump ship to the LibDems as a protest vote, when it comes to it I really can't see there being the numbers to overturn all the retired Major General Sir Bufton-Tuftons, the widowed Mrs. Ssmythe Fforbes-Hamiltons or the aspirational nouveau-riche of South Oxfordshire - Tories all.

I hope I'm wrong, but I simply can't see it.

[mids]

I think I'd vote Labour before I voted Lib-Dem. On principle, at least.

[flatandy]

I'd much prefer a hung parliament, but I fear that we're in pretty massive Labour majority territory. The Lib Dems will get a few seats in places like South West London, but generally the people who're anti-Tory and wanted a more tolerant but less Labourish vote are still pissed off with how little was got in return for propping up Cameron. The SNP are a shambles, even by SNP standards. The Greens are gaining votes but are unlikely to win more than a couple of seats. At the other end of the spectrum, the same will happen with REFUK. The Tories are despised, so the votes will go depressingly to the SKSKC.

It's going to be depressing, because Starmer seems to stand for almost nothing. His two guiding principles seem to be "getting power" and "being the Centrist Dad who thinks he's cool and progressive while actually agreeing with the Daily Mail on most things". It will be an improvement on the Tories, but only marginal, but it will have the problems of being an absolutely huge majority with no checks and balances, and on there being a big backlash and collapse in a few years because the majority is built on foundations of custard, leaving Britain with a horrible power vacuum.

[voice]

Healthy Labour majority most likely, though with this lot it will be Tory lite, mostly the same only with less cruelty. As ever neither extremes will make any inroads, greens maybe getting the odd seat, but that will be about it.

[flatandy]

I think less cruel is very optimistic. I suspect that Starmer will work on being as cruel because he's a Centrist Dad who thinks his electability is based on Blairite triangulation and therefore will want as much visibility as possible on the appearance of cruelty just so the Mail won't accuse him of being soft on cruelty.

It will probably be less corrupt for the first few years, but even that's unlikely to last long because nobody actually believes in anything which creates an opportunity for hucksters to come and take advantage.

The only good thing about this election will be the Tory demise. The replacement will be awful.

[mids]

I see Sir Keith is a gutless coward.

"Sir Keir Starmer refused to commit to a Tory challenge to take part in six general election TV debates with Rishi Sunak in the run up to July 4.

The Labour leader said televised debates “are always a part of an election campaign and no doubt will be a big part of what is going to happen over the next five or six weeks”.

But he would not be drawn on specific plans. Rishi Sunak has claimed Sir Keir does not have the “courage” to face him."

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/24/general-election-rishi-sunak-latest-news-keir-starmer/

[perrykneeham]

I see he's flip-flopped already. Goodness me, he's a knob.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2jjvpxxgr5o

[mids]

Although these debates are shite anyway.

[flatandy]

They want to make you watch 6 debates? Between those two? How much does the Tory Party hate the British public?

[flatandy]

Good news. The Performative Gammonism of the new "Death by Dangerous Cycling" law seems to have fallen by the wayside as a result of the election timing

www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2024/05/22/dangerous-cycling-law-ditched-due-to-uk-election-called-for-july

[flatandy]

Currently over 80 Tory MPs are not even bothering to stand again. Nobody wants to be Michael Portillo this time around, and they know it's coming.

Including, but not only

Michael Gove
Andrea Leadsom
John Redwood
Kwasi Kwarteng
Bill Cash
Matt Hancock
Dombo Raab
Tessa May
Nadim Zahawi
Ben Wallace
Bob Stewart
Douglas Ross
Sajid Javid
Chris Grayling
Graham Brady

There was no strength in depth in the Tory Party before this, but my god, they won't be able to put together a shadow cabinet even if they get enough seats to form the opposition.

[perrykneeham]

f**k me. I'm a month older than Gove.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69051548

Still, most people in the public sector retire at 55, so it's hardly surprising that Govey has decided, after never quite making it, to "retire" to the HoL. The best club in London.

The BBC have been f**k**g rubbish, haven't they? Their whole shtick over the past decade has been about the Westminster village, and they were cold-cocked over the general election. The BBC is now pointless and should be shut down, as should most institutions in UK.

[flatandy]

Agree. All Britain's useless archaic establishment institutions should go.

BBC
House of Lords
Tory Party
Pall Mall Club
Football Association
Royal Family
etc...

[voice]

Rats, sinking ship, ect

[mids]

Getting out of the Commons before Labour take over. It's probably a wise move.