US 2024 Election

[flatandy]

Well, RFKJr does have no chance. As I said, nobody has ever won a primary against an incumbent. Only one elected incumbent has ever not been renominated by his party, and that was Franklin Pierce, over a century before the primary system existed. Meanwhile, RFKJr's most known positions are anathema to a large majority of Democrats. And, meanwhile, I think even Massachusetts Democrats are bored of the Kennedy myth after a Kennedy failed in his Senate primary challenge last in 2020 so I don't think the name carries the same weight nationally any more.

[voice]

One looser is much the same as the other, the idiots a bit obsessed by JFKjr, he's becoming the great crank hope for the right, who have seen the polls and know how crappy a Trump candidacy will be.

Though taking of crank responses, JFKjr's reaction to Tucker Carlson being fired was as predictable as ever, according to him, Tucker was fired cos he stood up to Big Pharma by being anyivax, cos yeah, it's the vaccine, it's always the vaccine to the likes of JFKjr

[voice]

and if proof was needed of why Trumps level of crazy might not play that well at the ballot box.

He was out with his cult yesterday, praising and embracing a convicted insurrectionist who was shouting she wanted to be in a front row seat at Mike Pence's execution.

ussanews.com/2023/04/28/donald-trump-embraces-jan-6-defendant-who-wants-pence-executed/

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Former President Donald Trump embraced a Jan. 6 defendant at a diner during a campaign stop Thursday night, calling the woman, who served prison time for her actions during the Capitol attack and wants former Vice President Mike Pence executed for treason, “terrific.”

I really don't think he's gonna broaden his support much outside the hard core cultists, he's only offering fear, paranoia, lies and crazy. The majority simply don't find that attractive as proven by the last 3 election. They tired it on for size once and it was a disaster, doubt they'll try it again.

[flatandy]

The weird thing is, though, that it's deepening his support in the Republican primary. With Trump being increasingly terrible, there's nothing that DeSantis (or Haley or Pence) can do. The most recent poll has Trump on 62% and DeSantis on just 16%. DeSantis looks like a busted flush at the moment unless somehow Trump completely implodes. No matter how much ridiculous book banning and anti-gay and anti-trans stuff that he shoves through in Florida, he's totally wooden and uncharismatic and can't get anything like the love that Trump does. Interestingly, even the Florida Republicans are pissed off at how much virtue-signalling legislation they're having to pass for him now.

And once Trump is a candidate, there's a perfectly fair chance that he could win. It's unlikely, as he's way less popular than Biden, but it's possible. You only need a little bit of a recession or a proper international debacle and people will vote for the opposition candidate no matter how many convictions he has against his name.

[voice]

Oh yeah, nothing is certain, and Macarthy appears set on destroying the US economy to that end. If he succeeds it will be interesting who gets the blame for the defaulting on its debts and the recession that follow.

[voice]

Getting back to JFKjr, I was reading supposedly, Steve Bannon spent months encouraging Junior to run, which shows tremendous bad faith to be polite. He’ll be an annoyance to the Democratic Party but hopefully not a substantial disruption. An inspiration to Q-anon-sense followers, perhaps that explains his association with Roger Stone and General Michael Flynn.

[flatandy]

He’ll be about as relevant to the Democrats as Ramaswany or Connor Roy will be to the Republicans

[rick49]

Well, RFKJr does have no chance.

probably, but there is always a first time.

[voice]

It's been interesting recently seeing the GOP continuing their efforts to play down and dismiss the attempted overthrow of the US government during the Jan 6th insurrection in 2020, though I see its moving into a different phase, they are branding all manner of peaceful protests against abortion restrictions, or in support of gun laws and support for minorities, in places such as Minisota, Tennessee, Montana, and others, as being insurections, cos I suppose, if they can brand everything as an insurrection, then nothing is an insurrection.

[rick49]

yawn.

[mids]

Future PM and future US president.

[ootlg]

You might wish.

[flatandy]

I feel sick.

[mids]

I feel engorged.

[voice]

You need to hope Ron plays for the other side too then.

[flatandy]

Apr 30, 2023 18:55:16 GMT mids said:

I feel engorged.

They are both so uncharismatic that they look utterly wooden. They should not give you wood.

[voice]

Tim Scott just announced he was running for 2024.

He really hasn't read the room on the modern day republican party has he?

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65654865

[flatandy]

Splitting the non-white South Carolina Republican vote with Nikki Haley.

There are some questions about his, erm, committed bachelorhood. Not that I care, but there are people in the Republican Party who might.

If that’s not a thing, I think he’d be moderately formidable in a general election for Biden. Just by dint of being black, not always 100% crazy (often crazy, but less so than some of the other candidates), I think the media would present him as a centrist moderate (wrongly, of course).

He hasn’t really got a chance of winning the primary, so we won’t get to see if there’s actually any chance of him winning a general.

[voice]

Interesting polling shows Biden will, as most predict, defeat Trump quite easily, but would probably loose to DeSantos.

nypost.com/2023/04/25/biden-beats-trump-big-loses-to-desantis-2024-polls/

DeSantos is more of an authoritarian for sure and unlike Trump is actually competent enough to get his odious antifreeze speech and antifreedom policies passed.

[flatandy]

I wouldn’t trust that kind of polling yet. Generally speaking, the polling appears to have got worse for DeSantis the more people see of him. He’s wooden, and annoying. In Florida he’s a fairly big fish in a fairly small (and increasingly right-wing) pond. I think it wouldn’t take much to make him unacceptable. Also, the Trump die-hards would probably hold a bit of a grudge if the kills their man.

He might still beat Biden - Biden is eminently beatable (as are any prospective Democrat candidates), particularly if the economy is a bit messed up. But I don’t think this is useful polling yet. At the moment I think Trump is still the Republicans most formidable candidate, but if they don’t go with Trump they’d be better someone with a bit of charisma and at least a bit of a story. Haley or Scott have that, even if Haley looks like a terrified staring automaton when interviewed. DeSantis is just a bit rubbish. He doesn’t even have Ted Cruz’s needy, whiny aggressiveness.