General Election 2024

[voice]

Jun 3, 2024 17:04:17 GMT perrykneeham said:

If you'd bothered to read the link provided, you would see that the overwhelming majority of illegals claim to be refugees. Do try and keep up.

And?
That has nothing to do with the point I was making, and you know it, but you being you, are trying to make it about something else entirely cos I was able show very clearly illigals working in the places and so on I listed don't get benefits. That all you can ever do is talk about something else as way to cover up being wrong is a bit pathetic, but it's what you do.

[perrykneeham]

Please, re-state the point you were making, do.

[perrykneeham]

Jun 3, 2024 17:04:38 GMT flatandy said:

Jun 3, 2024 16:56:37 GMT perrykneeham said:

I expect that response rates will probably be a key consideration in poll errors this time round.

I think in addition to everything else about how bad the current government is and how comically inept the PM is at campaigning, there'll be other factors at work.

Gammons who'd normally vote Tory will now see that the Tories are sunk, so will feel free to fire off their random angry vote for Refuk which might harm the Tories more.

Also, often there seems to be a positive feedback loop where bad polling gets people to think that there's no reason to vote for the losing party. If you're in a once-safe Tory seat, why bother to vote Tory? You're associating yourself with sad losers which is just a depressing thought. If the Tories are doing better than expected, your seat is still safe so you didn't need to bother to go out. But if your seat (say, the 150th safest Tory seat) has become marginal, the Tories are getting hammered nationally so it doesn't matter if they lose this one.

There are things that might depress Tory vote even more.

But equally, there are lots of elements that might depress Labour vote, particularly their attempt to become StarmFront with their massively racist attacks on everyone depressing turnout among traditional Labour groups. I wonder if we'll see quite strong Green and Lib Dem showings in northern inner cities that normally have been very Labour, even while the so-called Red Wall of smaller working class northern towns revert.

You might be right, but I don't think that Tory voters are the kind of people who just shrug their shoulders and let socialists win. If nothing else, an inmate sense of superiority and concern for property prices will kick in.

[voice]

Jun 3, 2024 17:41:20 GMT perrykneeham said:

Please, re-state the point you were making, do.

Go back and read it, it's all there.

[perrykneeham]

No, you think I've missed it. I think I've nailed it. So it's up to you to either show where I'm wrong, or restate the point more clearly.

[voice]

Well if nailing it in your eyes to refusing to comment on anything from the original point, preferring instead to try and prove something no one was talking about and then going on about that something else entirely, then I suppose you nailed something.

Pay yourself on head, good job!

[perrykneeham]

So, you don't have the confidence in your position to do that one, simple thing. Okay.

I'll ask you again: what was the point that you were trying to make? Just state it. A single sentence will do.

[flatandy]

Jun 3, 2024 17:44:42 GMT perrykneeham said:

You might be right, but I don't think that Tory voters are the kind of people who just shrug their shoulders and let socialists win. If nothing else, an inmate sense of superiority and concern for property prices will kick in.

I'm not sure that there are many of that kind of trad Tory voter left.

And Starmfront have been doing a massive amount of work to make them feel safe and secure with a Labour win by getting rid of any vaguely progressive or left wing policies and instead dry-f**k**g week old copies of the Daily Mail.

[perrykneeham]

That's true, but he's been doing such a piss-poor job of it that I doubt he'll convert many.

[flatandy]

Polling evidence suggests otherwise. I fully expect a massive Labour landslide this year, with a huge collapse in their support at the next election because his platform is based on nothing.

[perrykneeham]

"Polling evidence" is the issue at heart here. I suspect it’s well off at the moment.

[voice]

There's nothing remotely socialist about the modern labour party, it's why so many once Tory voters will be voting them into office come July.

[mids]

Jun 3, 2024 18:24:47 GMT flatandy said:

Polling evidence suggests otherwise. I fully expect a massive Labour landslide this year, with a huge collapse in their support at the next election because his platform is based on nothing.

People need nothing to vote for.

[flatandy]

I've seen the Tories polling in the range of 18 to 26% and Labour between 40 and 406% and ConForm between them never having more than 35%. I would be surprised if we ended up much outside those spreads.

Of course, it's a wide spread, but it's between a Labour landslide of a 150 seat majority and a Labour landslide of a 450 seat majority. It's still a landslide.

[voice]

Wonder if rfukuk will get any seats, my feeling is no as they are fishing from a very small pool of disaffected far right Tories, they might act to increase a Labour majority though by splitting the lunatic vote.

[perrykneeham]

Jun 3, 2024 18:45:51 GMT flatandy said:

I've seen the Tories polling in the range of 18 to 26% and Labour between 40 and 406% and ConForm between them never having more than 35%. I would be surprised if we ended up much outside those spreads.

Of course, it's a wide spread, but it's between a Labour landslide of a 150 seat majority and a Labour landslide of a 450 seat majority. It's still a landslide.

I think you might be falling into the votes = seats trap. The vote won't be uniform. Getting 100% of the popular vote in 25% of the seats won't necessarily translate into a landslide.

[flatandy]

There is a chance in a couple of seats. 30p Lee in Ashfield and Fargle in Clacton. I'd say probably 25% chance of them winning one seat. Less than 1% chance of them winning more than 2. The Greens have a better chance of sneaking a second, I think.

[flatandy]

Jun 3, 2024 18:51:27 GMT perrykneeham said:

Jun 3, 2024 18:45:51 GMT flatandy said:

I've seen the Tories polling in the range of 18 to 26% and Labour between 40 and 406% and ConForm between them never having more than 35%. I would be surprised if we ended up much outside those spreads.

Of course, it's a wide spread, but it's between a Labour landslide of a 150 seat majority and a Labour landslide of a 450 seat majority. It's still a landslide.

I think you might be falling into the votes = seats trap. The vote won't be uniform. Getting 100% of the popular vote in 25% of the seats won't necessarily translate into a landslide.

I think you might be falling into a wishful thinking trap that somehow all of Labour's 42% of the vote will be in Central London and Liverpool, and that the Tories' collapse will not be national.

[perrykneeham]

Jun 3, 2024 17:45:48 GMT voice said:

Jun 3, 2024 17:41:20 GMT perrykneeham said:

Please, re-state the point you were making, do.

Go back and read it, it's all there.

Nah, I think I've answered that. It's just you now. So, pony up, or shut up.

[perrykneeham]

Jun 3, 2024 18:53:14 GMT flatandy said:

Jun 3, 2024 18:51:27 GMT perrykneeham said:

I think you might be falling into the votes = seats trap. The vote won't be uniform. Getting 100% of the popular vote in 25% of the seats won't necessarily translate into a landslide.

I think you might be falling into a wishful thinking trap that somehow all of Labour's 42% of the vote will be in Central London and Liverpool, and that the Tories' collapse will not be national.

Right back atcha. I'm prepared to countenance a landslide, but I sort of doubt it. The Tories are shite at the moment, but they're not John Major shite, nor is Starmer so much as a shadow of Blair. Also, he has no big beasts: there's no substance whatsoever.